YaBeSH Engineering and Technology Library

    • Journals
    • PaperQuest
    • YSE Standards
    • YaBeSH
    • Login
    View Item 
    •   YE&T Library
    • AMS
    • Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
    • View Item
    •   YE&T Library
    • AMS
    • Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
    • View Item
    • All Fields
    • Source Title
    • Year
    • Publisher
    • Title
    • Subject
    • Author
    • DOI
    • ISBN
    Advanced Search
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Archive

    Climate Change Scenarios for New Zealand Rainfall

    Source: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology:;2007:;volume( 046 ):;issue: 005::page 573
    Author:
    Sansom, John
    ,
    Renwick, James A.
    DOI: 10.1175/JAM2491.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: In terms of the effects of future climate change upon society, some of the most important parameters to estimate are associated with changing risks of extreme rainfall events, both floods and droughts. However, such aspects of the climate system are hard to estimate well using general circulation models (GCMs)?in particular, for a small mountainous landmass such as New Zealand. This paper describes a downscaling technique using broad-scale changes simulated by GCMs to select past analogs of future climate. The analog samples are assumed to represent an unbiased sample of future rainfall and are used to develop detailed descriptions of rainfall statistics using hidden semi-Markov models of rainfall breakpoint information. Such models are used to simulate long synthetic rainfall time series for comparison with the historical record. Results for three New Zealand sites show overall increases in rainfall with climate change, brought about largely by an increased frequency of rainfall events rather than an increase in rainfall intensity. There was little evidence for significant increases in high-intensity short-duration rainfalls at any site. Such results suggest that, although regional increases of rainfall are consistent with expected future climate changes, it may be that circulation changes, rather than temperature (and vapor pressure) changes, will be the more important determinant of future rainfall distributions, at least for the coming few decades.
    • Download: (2.107Mb)
    • Show Full MetaData Hide Full MetaData
    • Item Order
    • Go To Publisher
    • Price: 5000 Rial
    • Statistics

      Climate Change Scenarios for New Zealand Rainfall

    URI
    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4216642
    Collections
    • Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

    Show full item record

    contributor authorSansom, John
    contributor authorRenwick, James A.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T16:48:12Z
    date available2017-06-09T16:48:12Z
    date copyright2007/05/01
    date issued2007
    identifier issn1558-8424
    identifier otherams-74419.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4216642
    description abstractIn terms of the effects of future climate change upon society, some of the most important parameters to estimate are associated with changing risks of extreme rainfall events, both floods and droughts. However, such aspects of the climate system are hard to estimate well using general circulation models (GCMs)?in particular, for a small mountainous landmass such as New Zealand. This paper describes a downscaling technique using broad-scale changes simulated by GCMs to select past analogs of future climate. The analog samples are assumed to represent an unbiased sample of future rainfall and are used to develop detailed descriptions of rainfall statistics using hidden semi-Markov models of rainfall breakpoint information. Such models are used to simulate long synthetic rainfall time series for comparison with the historical record. Results for three New Zealand sites show overall increases in rainfall with climate change, brought about largely by an increased frequency of rainfall events rather than an increase in rainfall intensity. There was little evidence for significant increases in high-intensity short-duration rainfalls at any site. Such results suggest that, although regional increases of rainfall are consistent with expected future climate changes, it may be that circulation changes, rather than temperature (and vapor pressure) changes, will be the more important determinant of future rainfall distributions, at least for the coming few decades.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleClimate Change Scenarios for New Zealand Rainfall
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume46
    journal issue5
    journal titleJournal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
    identifier doi10.1175/JAM2491.1
    journal fristpage573
    journal lastpage590
    treeJournal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology:;2007:;volume( 046 ):;issue: 005
    contenttypeFulltext
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian
     
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian