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contributor authorSansom, John
contributor authorRenwick, James A.
date accessioned2017-06-09T16:48:12Z
date available2017-06-09T16:48:12Z
date copyright2007/05/01
date issued2007
identifier issn1558-8424
identifier otherams-74419.pdf
identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4216642
description abstractIn terms of the effects of future climate change upon society, some of the most important parameters to estimate are associated with changing risks of extreme rainfall events, both floods and droughts. However, such aspects of the climate system are hard to estimate well using general circulation models (GCMs)?in particular, for a small mountainous landmass such as New Zealand. This paper describes a downscaling technique using broad-scale changes simulated by GCMs to select past analogs of future climate. The analog samples are assumed to represent an unbiased sample of future rainfall and are used to develop detailed descriptions of rainfall statistics using hidden semi-Markov models of rainfall breakpoint information. Such models are used to simulate long synthetic rainfall time series for comparison with the historical record. Results for three New Zealand sites show overall increases in rainfall with climate change, brought about largely by an increased frequency of rainfall events rather than an increase in rainfall intensity. There was little evidence for significant increases in high-intensity short-duration rainfalls at any site. Such results suggest that, although regional increases of rainfall are consistent with expected future climate changes, it may be that circulation changes, rather than temperature (and vapor pressure) changes, will be the more important determinant of future rainfall distributions, at least for the coming few decades.
publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
titleClimate Change Scenarios for New Zealand Rainfall
typeJournal Paper
journal volume46
journal issue5
journal titleJournal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
identifier doi10.1175/JAM2491.1
journal fristpage573
journal lastpage590
treeJournal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology:;2007:;volume( 046 ):;issue: 005
contenttypeFulltext


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