Application of a Statistical Methodology for Gas Turbine Degradation Prognostics to Alstom Field Data

Abstract

In this paper, a prognostic methodology is applied to gas turbine field data to assess its capability as a predictive tool for degradation effects. On the basis of the recordings of past behavior, the methodology provides a prediction of future performance, i.e., the probability that degradation effects are at an acceptable level in future operations. The analyses carried out in this paper consider two different parameters (power output and compressor efficiency) of three different Alstom gas turbine power plants (gas turbine type GT13E2, GT24, and GT26). To apply the prognostic methodology, site specific degradation threshold values were defined, to identify the time periods with acceptable degradation (i.e., higherthanthreshold operation) and the time periods where maintenance activities are recommended (i.e., lowerthanthreshold operation). This paper compares the actual distribution of the time points until the degradation limit is reached (discrete by nature) to the continuously varying distribution of the time points simulated by the probability density functions obtained through the prognostic methodology. Moreover, the reliability of the methodology prediction is assessed for all the available field data of the three gas turbines and for two values of the threshold. For this analysis, the prognostic methodology is applied by considering different numbers of degradation periods for methodology calibration and the accuracy of the next forecasted trends is compared to the real data. Finally, this paper compares the prognostic methodology prediction to a “purely deterministicâ€‌ prediction chosen to be the average of the past time points of higherthanthreshold operations. The results show that, in almost all cases, the prognostic methodology allows a better prediction than the “purely deterministicâ€‌ approach for both power and compressor efficiency degradation. Therefore, the prognostic methodology seems to be a robust and reliable tool to predict gas turbine power plant “probabilisticâ€‌ degradation.