Abstract: Estimates of several components of forecasting skill can be obtained by combining a skill-score decomposition developed by Allan Murphy with techniques for decomposing correlation coefficients that have been employed in ...

Abstract: A case study of the impact of improved precipitation forecasts on the snow-fighting operations of the New York State Thruway is reported. The goal was to use currently available data and literature on forecast process, ...

Abstract: Skill-score decompositions can be used to analyze the effects of bias on forecasting skill. However, since bias terms are typically squared, and bias is measured in skill-score units rather than in units of the forecasts, ...

Abstract: No Abstract Available.

Abstract: This paper reports some results of a descriptive study of the value of weather information used by fruit growers in the Yakima Valley of central Washington to decide when to protect their orchards against freezing temperatures. ...

Abstract: This study compared meteorologists, an expert system, and simple weighted-sum models in a limited-information hail forecasting experiment. It was found that forecasts made by meteorologists were closely approximated by an ...

Abstract: The relationship between the quality and quantity of information available to meteorologists and the skill of their forecasts was investigated. Twelve meteorologists were asked to make probabilistic forecasts of significant ...

Abstract: Two studies of microburst forecasting were conducted in order to demonstrate the utility of applying theoretical and methodological concepts from judgment and decision making to meteorology. A hierarchical model of the ...