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A Decomposition of the Correlation Coefficient and its Use in Analyzing Forecasting Skill
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Estimates of several components of forecasting skill can be obtained by combining a skill-score decomposition developed by Allan Murphy with techniques for decomposing correlation coefficients that have been employed in ...
Understanding User Decision Making and the Value of Improved Precipitation Forecasts: Lessons From a Case Study
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A case study of the impact of improved precipitation forecasts on the snow-fighting operations of the New York State Thruway is reported. The goal was to use currently available data and literature on forecast process, ...
Coefficients for Debiasing Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Skill-score decompositions can be used to analyze the effects of bias on forecasting skill. However, since bias terms are typically squared, and bias is measured in skill-score units rather than in units of the forecasts, ...
Value of Weather Information: A Descriptive Study of the Fruit-Frost Problem
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This paper reports some results of a descriptive study of the value of weather information used by fruit growers in the Yakima Valley of central Washington to decide when to protect their orchards against freezing temperatures. ...
Analysis of Expert Judgment in a Hail Forecasting Experiment
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This study compared meteorologists, an expert system, and simple weighted-sum models in a limited-information hail forecasting experiment. It was found that forecasts made by meteorologists were closely approximated by an ...
The Weather Information and Skill Experiment (WISE): The Effect of Varying Levels of Information on Forecast Skill
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The relationship between the quality and quantity of information available to meteorologists and the skill of their forecasts was investigated. Twelve meteorologists were asked to make probabilistic forecasts of significant ...
Judgment and Decision Making in Dynamic Tasks: The Case of Forecasting the Microburst
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Two studies of microburst forecasting were conducted in order to demonstrate the utility of applying theoretical and methodological concepts from judgment and decision making to meteorology. A hierarchical model of the ...