Analysis of Expert Judgment in a Hail Forecasting ExperimentSource: Weather and Forecasting:;1989:;volume( 004 ):;issue: 001::page 24Author:Stewart, Thomas R.
,
Moninger, William R.
,
Brady, Ray H.
,
Merrem, Frank H.
,
Stewart, Thomas R.
,
Grassia, Janet
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0434(1989)004<0024:AOEJIA>2.0.CO;2Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This study compared meteorologists, an expert system, and simple weighted-sum models in a limited-information hail forecasting experiment. It was found that forecasts made by meteorologists were closely approximated by an additive model, and that the model captured most of their forecasting skill. Furthermore, the additive model approximated the meteorologists? forecasts better than the expert system did. Results of this study am consistent with the results of extensive psychological research on judgment and decision making processes. Potential implications are discussed.
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| contributor author | Stewart, Thomas R. | |
| contributor author | Moninger, William R. | |
| contributor author | Brady, Ray H. | |
| contributor author | Merrem, Frank H. | |
| contributor author | Stewart, Thomas R. | |
| contributor author | Grassia, Janet | |
| date accessioned | 2017-06-09T14:41:46Z | |
| date available | 2017-06-09T14:41:46Z | |
| date copyright | 1989/03/01 | |
| date issued | 1989 | |
| identifier issn | 0882-8156 | |
| identifier other | ams-2467.pdf | |
| identifier uri | http://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4161367 | |
| description abstract | This study compared meteorologists, an expert system, and simple weighted-sum models in a limited-information hail forecasting experiment. It was found that forecasts made by meteorologists were closely approximated by an additive model, and that the model captured most of their forecasting skill. Furthermore, the additive model approximated the meteorologists? forecasts better than the expert system did. Results of this study am consistent with the results of extensive psychological research on judgment and decision making processes. Potential implications are discussed. | |
| publisher | American Meteorological Society | |
| title | Analysis of Expert Judgment in a Hail Forecasting Experiment | |
| type | Journal Paper | |
| journal volume | 4 | |
| journal issue | 1 | |
| journal title | Weather and Forecasting | |
| identifier doi | 10.1175/1520-0434(1989)004<0024:AOEJIA>2.0.CO;2 | |
| journal fristpage | 24 | |
| journal lastpage | 34 | |
| tree | Weather and Forecasting:;1989:;volume( 004 ):;issue: 001 | |
| contenttype | Fulltext |