The Weather Information and Skill Experiment (WISE): The Effect of Varying Levels of Information on Forecast SkillSource: Weather and Forecasting:;1993:;volume( 008 ):;issue: 001::page 25Author:Heideman, Kenneth F.
,
Stewart, Thomas R.
,
Moninger, William R.
,
Reagan-Cirincione, Patricia
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0434(1993)008<0025:TWIASE>2.0.CO;2Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The relationship between the quality and quantity of information available to meteorologists and the skill of their forecasts was investigated. Twelve meteorologists were asked to make probabilistic forecasts of significant and severe weather events under three information conditions. Forecast accuracy was generally low. As the amount and quality of the information increased substantially, there was a modest increase in the accuracy of the forecasts. However, the results suggest that the forecasters were least consistent when they had the most information to work with, partially reducing the benefits of the increased information.
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| contributor author | Heideman, Kenneth F. | |
| contributor author | Stewart, Thomas R. | |
| contributor author | Moninger, William R. | |
| contributor author | Reagan-Cirincione, Patricia | |
| date accessioned | 2017-06-09T14:47:19Z | |
| date available | 2017-06-09T14:47:19Z | |
| date copyright | 1993/03/01 | |
| date issued | 1993 | |
| identifier issn | 0882-8156 | |
| identifier other | ams-2679.pdf | |
| identifier uri | http://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4163722 | |
| description abstract | The relationship between the quality and quantity of information available to meteorologists and the skill of their forecasts was investigated. Twelve meteorologists were asked to make probabilistic forecasts of significant and severe weather events under three information conditions. Forecast accuracy was generally low. As the amount and quality of the information increased substantially, there was a modest increase in the accuracy of the forecasts. However, the results suggest that the forecasters were least consistent when they had the most information to work with, partially reducing the benefits of the increased information. | |
| publisher | American Meteorological Society | |
| title | The Weather Information and Skill Experiment (WISE): The Effect of Varying Levels of Information on Forecast Skill | |
| type | Journal Paper | |
| journal volume | 8 | |
| journal issue | 1 | |
| journal title | Weather and Forecasting | |
| identifier doi | 10.1175/1520-0434(1993)008<0025:TWIASE>2.0.CO;2 | |
| journal fristpage | 25 | |
| journal lastpage | 36 | |
| tree | Weather and Forecasting:;1993:;volume( 008 ):;issue: 001 | |
| contenttype | Fulltext |