Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 301-320 of 3043
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Evaluation of the Forecast Performance for Week-2 Winter Surface Air Temperature from the Model for Prediction Across Scales–Atmosphere (MPAS-A)
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)The forecast skill for week-2 wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) over the Northern Hemisphere by the Model for Prediction Across Scales–Atmosphere (MPAS-A) is evaluated and compared with operational forecast systems ... -
Expanding and Enhancing Streamflow Prediction Capability of the National Water Model Using Real-Time Low-Cost Stage Measurements
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)This study demonstrates an approach to expand and improve the current prediction capability of the National Water Model (NWM). The primary objective is to examine the potential benefit of real-time local stage measurements ... -
Introducing TC Translation Speed into the Dynamical–Statistical–Analog Ensemble Forecast for Landfalling Typhoon Daily Precipitation Model and Simulating the Daily Precipitation of Supertyphoon Lekima (2019)
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)The Dynamical–Statistical–Analog Ensemble Forecast for Landfalling Typhoon Daily Precipitation (DSAEF_LTP_D) model is introduced in this paper. To improve the DSAEF_LTP_D model’s forecasting ability, tropical cyclone (TC) ... -
Evaluating GFS and ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts of Integrated Water Vapor Transport along the U.S. West Coast
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long and narrow regions in the atmosphere of enhanced integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and can produce extreme precipitation and high societal impacts. Reliable and skillful forecasts of ... -
Quantification of NSSL Warn-on-Forecast System Accuracy by Storm Age Using Object-Based Verification
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)The National Severe Storm Laboratory’s Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) is a convection-allowing ensemble with rapidly cycled data assimilation (DA) of various satellite and radar datasets designed for prediction at 0–6-h ... -
A Simple Bias and Uncertainty Scheme for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)To better forecast tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change and understand forecast uncertainty, it is critical to recognize the inherent limitations of forecast models. The distributions of intensity change for statistica ... -
Short-Term Weather Forecast Skill of Artificial Neural Networks
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)We evaluate the short-term weather forecast performance of three flavors of artificial neural networks (NNs): feed forward back propagation, radial basis function, and generalized regression. To prepare the application of ... -
Impact of Assimilating Adaptively Thinned AIRS Cloud-Cleared Radiances on the Analysis of Polar Lows and Mediterranean Sea Tropical-Like Cyclone in a Global Modeling and Data Assimilation Framework
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Polar lows, and mesoscale convective cyclones bearing resemblance to tropical cyclones but originating outside of the tropics, are storms that are challenging to represent accurately in global analyses and models because ... -
On the Changes in Convection-Allowing WRF Forecasts of MCS Evolution due to Decreases in Model Horizontal and Vertical Grid Spacing. Part II: Impacts on QPFs
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Several past studies have demonstrated improvement in forecasting convective precipitation by decreasing model grid spacing to the point of explicitly resolving deep convection. Real-case convective modeling studies have ... -
On the Changes in Convection-Allowing WRF Forecasts of MCS Evolution due to Decreases in Model Horizontal and Vertical Grid Spacing. Part I: Changes in Cold Pool Evolution
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)The degree of improvement in convective representation in NWP with horizontal grid spacings finer than 3 km remains debatable. While some research suggests subkilometer horizontal grid spacing is needed to resolve details ... -
Identifying Causes of Short-Range Forecast Errors in Maximum Temperature during Recent Central European Heatwaves Using the ECMWF-IFS Ensemble
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)In the last few years, central Europe faced a number of severe, record-breaking heatwaves. Previous studies focused on predictability of heatwaves on medium-range to subseasonal time scales (5–30 days). However, also ... -
Environmental Analysis of Warm-Season First Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Events over the Western Florida Peninsula
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Florida annually leads the United States in lightning-caused fatalities. While many studies have examined the lightning frequency maximum near Cape Canaveral, relatively little attention has been paid to the western Florida ... -
Improving the Forecast Performance of the DSAEF_LTP Model by Incorporating TC Translation Speed Similarity
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)The Dynamical–Statistical–Analog Ensemble Forecast model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation (DSAEF_LTP) was developed as a supplementary method to numerical weather prediction (NWP). A successful strategy for improving ... -
Model Evaluation by Measurements from Collocated Remote Sensors in Complex Terrain
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Model improvement efforts involve an evaluation of changes in model skill in response to changes in model physics and parameterization. When using wind measurements from various remote sensors to determine model forecast ... -
A Single-Column Model Evaluation of Mixing Length Formulations and Constraints for the sa-TKE-EDMF Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Parameterizing boundary layer turbulence is a critical component of numerical weather prediction and the representation of turbulent mixing of momentum, heat, and other tracers. The components that make up a boundary layer ... -
Doppler Lidar and Mobile Radiosonde Observation-Based Evaluation of Warn-on-Forecast System Predicted Near-Supercell Environments during TORUS 2019
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Observational data collection is extremely hazardous in supercell storm environments, which makes for a scarcity of data used for evaluating the storm-scale guidance from convection allowing models (CAMs) like the National ... -
Distinguishing between Hodographs of Severe Hail and Tornadoes
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Hodographs are valuable sources of pattern recognition in severe convective storm forecasting. Certain shapes are known to discriminate between single cell, multicell, and supercell storm organization. Various derived ... -
The Relationship between Northeast Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures, Synoptic Evolution, and Surface Air Temperatures over the Pacific Northwest
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)The development of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the northeast Pacific and their impacts on lower-tropospheric air temperatures over the Pacific Northwest are examined. Northeast Pacific SST anomalies are ... -
Machine Learning–Derived Severe Weather Probabilities from a Warn-on-Forecast System
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Severe weather probabilities are derived from the Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) run by NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) during spring 2018 using the random forest (RF) machine learning algorithm. Recent ... -
Developing a Climate Prediction System over Southwest China Using the 8-km Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model: System Design, Model Calibration, and Performance Evaluation
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)A high-resolution, short-term climate prediction system for summer (June–July–August) climate over Southwest China has been developed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model nested with a global climate ...