Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 321-340 of 3043
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The Impact of Dropsonde Data on the Performance of the NCEP Global Forecast System during the 2020 Atmospheric Rivers Observing Campaign. Part I: Precipitation
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)The impact of assimilating dropsonde data from the 2020 Atmospheric River (AR) Reconnaissance (ARR) field campaign on operational numerical precipitation forecasts was assessed. Two experiments were executed for the period ... -
Features of MCSs in the Central United States Using Simulations of ERA5-Forced Convection-Permitting Climate Models
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)In this work, we characterized the occurrences and conditions before the initiations of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the central United States, using 15 years of observations and convection-permitting climate ... -
Diagnostics of Tropical Variability for Numerical Weather Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Tropical precipitation and circulation are often coupled and span a vast spectrum of scales from a few to several thousands of kilometers and from hours to weeks. Current operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) ... -
Microphysical Perturbation Experiments and Ensemble Forecasts on Summertime Heavy Rainfall over Northern Taiwan
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Microphysical perturbation experiments were conducted to investigate the sensitivity of convective heavy rain simulation to cloud microphysical parameterization and its feasibility for ensemble forecasts. An ensemble of ... -
Impacts of Assimilating Additional Reconnaissance Data on Operational GFS Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)This study reviews the recent addition of dropwindsonde wind data near the tropical cyclone (TC) center as well as the first-time addition of high-density, flight-level reconnaissance observations (HDOBs) into the National ... -
Real-Time Simulated Storm Surge Predictions during Hurricane Michael (2018)
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Storm surge caused by tropical cyclones can cause overland flooding and lead to loss of life while damaging homes, businesses, and critical infrastructure. In 2018, Hurricane Michael made landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida, ... -
The Utility of ProbSevere v2.0 for Predicting Pulse Severe Thunderstorms
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Pulse severe storms are single-cell thunderstorms that produce severe wind and/or severe hail for a brief period of time. These storms pose a major warm season forecasting problem since forecasters presently do not have ... -
North Pacific and North Atlantic Jet Covariability and Its Relationship to Cool Season Temperature and Precipitation Extremes
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Cool season (September–May) extreme temperature and precipitation events are frequently tied to surface cyclones and anticyclones, which are modulated on the synoptic scale by the state and evolution of the upper-tropospheric ... -
Implementation of Scale-Dependent Background-Error Covariance Localization in the Canadian Global Deterministic Prediction System
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)The approach of applying different amounts of horizontal localization to different ranges of background-error covariance horizontal scales as proposed by Buehner and Shlyaeva was recently implemented in the four-dimensional ... -
Prediction of Meso-γ-Scale Local Heavy Rain by Ground-Based Cloud Radar Assimilation with Water Vapor Nudging
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Meso- -
Improving Analysis and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones by Assimilating Radar and GNSS-R Wind Observations: Ensemble Data Assimilation and Observing System Simulation Experiments Using a Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)This study investigates the impact of assimilating ground-based radar reflectivity and wind data on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction. The effect on a high-impact TC in the western North Pacific region that ... -
Climate Normals: Are They Always Communicated Correctly?
(American Meteorological Society, 2022) -
A Machine Learning Tutorial for Operational Meteorology. Part I: Traditional Machine Learning
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Recently, the use of machine learning in meteorology has increased greatly. While many machine learning methods are not new, university classes on machine learning are largely unavailable to meteorology students and are ... -
Forecasting Convection with a “Scale-Aware” Tiedtke Cumulus Parameterization Scheme at Kilometer Scales
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)A scale-aware convective parameterization based on the Tiedtke scheme is developed and tested in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) for a few convective cases ... -
The Impact of Incorporating the Air–Lake Interaction on Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts over Southern Ontario, Canada
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)A short-range regional, two-way coupled atmosphere–ocean–ice model has been recently developed in an attempt to improve, among other things, quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) over southern Ontario, Canada, by ... -
Predicting Peak Wind Gusts during Specific Weather Types with the Meteorologically Stratified Gust Factor Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Wind gusts present challenges to operational meteorologists, both to forecast accurately and also to verify. Strong wind gusts can damage structures and create costly risks for diverse industrial sectors. The meteorologically ... -
Comparing Partial and Continuously Cycling Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation Systems for Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecast Initialization
(2022)Several limited-area 80-member ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation systems with 15-km horizontal grid spacing were run over a computational domain spanning the conterminous United States (CONUS) for a 4-week ... -
Masthead
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Biases in the Prediction of Convective Storm Characteristics with a Convection Allowing Ensemble
(2021)The severity, duration, and spatial extent of thunderstorm impacts are related to convective storm mode. This study assesses the skill of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRR-E) and its deterministic counterpart ... -
Demonstrating a Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Estimate for Evaluating Precipitation Forecasts in Complex Terrain
(2021)Accurate quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) at high spatial and temporal resolution are difficult to obtain in regions of complex terrain due to the large spatial heterogeneity of orographically enhanced precipitation, ...