Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 341-360 of 3043
-
Storm-Scale Polarimetric Radar Signatures Associated with Tornado Dissipation in Supercells
(2021)Polarimetric radar data from the WSR-88D network are used to examine the evolution of various polarimetric precursor signatures to tornado dissipation within a sample of 36 supercell storms. These signatures include an ... -
Forecasting Northern Australian Summer Rainfall Bursts Using a Seasonal Prediction System
(2021)Rainfall bursts are relatively short-lived events that typically occur over consecutive days, up to a week. Northern Australian industries like sugar farming and beef are highly sensitive to burst activity, yet little is ... -
Freezing Fraction in Freezing Rain
(2022)Freezing rain can cause significant tree damage with fallen trees and branches blocking roads and taking power distribution lines out of service. Power transmission lines are designed for ice loads from freezing rain, using ... -
Performance of 2020 Real-Time Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts from High-Resolution Global-Nested Hurricane Models: HAFS-globalnest and GFDL T-SHiELD
(2022)The global-nested Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS-globalnest) is one piece of NOAA’s Unified Forecast System (UFS) application for hurricanes. In this study, results are analyzed from 2020 real-time forecasts ... -
Communicating Properties of Changes in Lagged Weather Forecasts
(2022)Weather forecasts, seasonal forecasts, and climate projections can help their users make good decisions. It has recently been shown that when the decisions include the question of whether to act now or wait for the next ... -
The Performance of ECMWF Subseasonal Forecasts to Predict the Rainy Season Onset Dates in Vietnam
(2022)The onset of the rainy season is an important date for the mostly rain-fed agricultural practices in Vietnam. Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) ensemble hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ... -
High-Resolution NWP Forecast Precipitation Comparison over Complex Terrain of the Sierras de Córdoba during RELAMPAGO-CACTI
(2022)Sierras de Córdoba (Argentina) is characterized by the occurrence of extreme precipitation events during the austral warm season. Heavy precipitation in the region has a large societal impact, causing flash floods. This ... -
Masthead
(2022) -
Exploring the Differences in SPC Convective Outlook Interpretation Using Categorical and Numeric Information
(2022)While previous work has shown that the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) convective outlooks accurately capture meteorological outcomes, evidence suggests stakeholders and the public may misinterpret the categorical words ... -
The Influence of WSR-88D Intra-Scanning Strategies on Thunderstorm Observations and Warnings in the Dual-Polarization Radar Era: 2011–20
(2022)The Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network has undergone several improvements in the last decade with the upgrade to dual-polarization capabilities and the ability for forecasters to rescan the lowest ... -
Testing Vertical Wind Shear and Nonlinear MJO–ENSO Interactions as Predictors for Subseasonal Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
(2022)Hansen et al. found patterns of vertical wind shear, relative humidity (RH), and nonlinear interactions between the Madden–Julian oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation that impact subseasonal Atlantic TC activity. ... -
An Analysis of the 3 May 2020 Low-Predictability Derecho Using a Convection-Allowing MPAS Ensemble
(2022)This study analyzes the low short-range predictability of the 3 May 2020 derecho using a 40-member convection-allowing Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) ensemble. Elevated storms formed in south-central Kansas late ... -
The Ability of the ICE-T Microphysics Scheme in HARMONIE-AROME to Predict Aircraft Icing
(2022)In-cloud icing is a major hazard for aviation traffic and forecasting of these events is an important task for weather agencies worldwide. A common tool utilized by aviation forecasters is an icing intensity index based ... -
Exploring the Usefulness of Downscaling Free Forecasts from the Warn-on-Forecast System
(2022)The National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) is an experimental real-time rapidly updating convection-allowing ensemble that provides probabilistic short-term thunderstorm forecasts. This ... -
Masthead
(2022) -
Development and Evaluation of Global Korean Aviation Turbulence Forecast Systems Based on an Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Model and In Situ Flight Turbulence Observation Data
(2022)A global Korean deterministic aviation turbulence guidance (G-KTG) system and a global Korean probabilistic turbulence forecast (G-KPT) system are developed using outputs from the operational Global Data Assimilation and ... -
Using NOAA Satellite Imagery to Detect and Track Hazardous Sea Spray in the High Latitudes
(2022)Sea spray presents a significant hazard to vessels in the high latitudes. At issue is the accumulation of ice, which can destabilize, and at times, sink a ship. Many studies have focused on icing prediction systems, but a ... -
Objective and Probabilistic Long-Range Forecasts of Summertime Air Temperatures in South Korea Based on Gaussian Processes
(2022)We propose the objective long-range forecasting model based on Gaussian processes (OLRAF-GP), focusing on summertime near-surface air temperatures in June (1-month lead), July (2-month lead), and August (3-month lead). The ... -
The Relationship between High-Presentation Asthma Days in Melbourne, Australia, and Modeled Thunderstorm Environments
(2022)Epidemic asthma events represent a significant risk to emergency services as well as the wider community. In southeastern Australia, these events occur in conjunction with relatively high amounts of grass pollen during the ... -
Machine Learning–Based Hurricane Wind Reconstruction
(2022)Here we present a machine learning–based wind reconstruction model. The model reconstructs hurricane surface winds with XGBoost, which is a decision-tree-based ensemble predictive algorithm. The model treats the symmetric ...