Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 281-300 of 3043
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Prototype of a Warn-on-Forecast System for Smoke (WoFS-Smoke)
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)This research begins the process of creating an ensemble-based forecast system for smoke aerosols generated from wildfires using a modified version of the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) Warn-on-Forecast System ... -
Impact of WSR-88D Intra-Volume Low-Level Scans on Severe Weather Warning Performance
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)The statistical relationship between supplemental adaptive intra-volume low-level scan (SAILS) usage on the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler and National Weather Service severe storm warning performance during 2014–20 ... -
Identifying Weather Patterns Associated with Increased Volcanic Ash Risk within British Isles Airspace
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Icelandic volcanic emissions have been shown historically and more recently to have an impact on public health and aviation across northern and western Europe. The severity of these impacts is governed by the prevailing ... -
Differences in Near-Storm Parameters Useful for Forecasting Intensity of Nocturnal and Diurnal Bow Echo Winds
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Because bow echoes are often associated with damaging wind, accurate prediction of their severity is important. Recent work by Mauri and Gallus showed that despite increased challenges in forecasting nocturnal bows due to ... -
Nowcasting Applications of Geostationary Satellite Hourly Surface PM2.5 Data
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)The mass concentration of fine particulate matter (PM -
History and Development of the USAF Agriculture Meteorology Modeling System and Resulting USAF–NASA Strategic Partnership
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)The USAF Weather (AFW) supports a number of military and U.S. government agencies by providing authoritative weather analysis and forecast products for any location globally, including soil moisture analyses. The long ... -
Collaboration among Forecasters to Issue Severe Weather Hazard Information and Warnings Using the Hazard Services–Probabilistic Hazard Information (HS-PHI) Tool
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)This project tested software capabilities and operational implications related to interoffice collaboration during NWS severe weather warning operations within a proposed paradigm, Forecasting A Continuum of Environmental ... -
Short-Term Visibility Prediction Using Tree-Based Machine Learning Algorithms and Numerical Weather Prediction Data
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Accurate visibility prediction is imperative in the interests of human and environmental health. However, the existing numerical models for visibility prediction are characterized by low prediction accuracy and high ... -
Prediction Skill of GEFSv12 in Depicting Monthly Rainfall and Associated Extreme Events over Taiwan during the Summer Monsoon
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)The skillful prediction of monthly scale rainfall in small regions like Taiwan is one of the challenges of the meteorological scientific community. Taiwan is one of the subtropical islands in Asia. It experiences rainfall ... -
Generation of Extreme Precipitation over the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau Associated with TC Rashmi (2008)
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)In this study, the development of an extreme precipitation event along the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) by the approach of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Rashmi (2008) from the Bay of Bengal is examined using a ... -
An Optimal Interpolation–Based Snow Data Assimilation for NOAA’s Unified Forecast System (UFS)
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Within the National Weather Service’s Unified Forecast System (UFS), snow depth and snow cover observations are assimilated once daily using a rule-based method designed to correct for gross errors. While this approach ... -
Evaluation of Model Summertime Boundary Layer Cloud Development over Complex Terrain in New York State
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Weather forecasting over complex terrain with diverse land cover is challenging. Utilizing the high-resolution observations from New York State Mesonet (NYSM), we are able to evaluate the surface processes of the Weather ... -
Role of a Pacific Easterly Wave in the Genesis of Hagupit (2008)
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)The Advanced version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) Model is used to investigate the influence of an easterly wave (EW) on the genesis of Typhoon Hagupit (2008) in the western North Pacific. Observational ... -
A Decade after Typhoon Morakot (2009): What Have We Learned about Its Physics and Predictability?
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan during 7–9 August 2009 and became the deadliest tropical cyclone (TC) in five decades by producing up to 2635 mm of rain in 48 h, breaking the world record. The extreme rainfall of Morakot ... -
The National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Model Guidance Suite
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)The National Hurricane Center (NHC) uses a variety of guidance models for its operational tropical cyclone track, intensity, and wind structure forecasts, and as baselines for the evaluation of forecast skill. A set of the ... -
Randomized Subensembles: An Approach to Reduce the Risk of Divergence in an Ensemble Kalman Filter Using Cross Validation
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)In an ensemble Kalman filter, when the analysis update of an ensemble member is computed using error statistics estimated from an ensemble that includes the background of the member being updated, the spread of the resulting ... -
An Objective Scoring Method for Evaluating the Comparative Performance of Automated Storm Identification and Tracking Algorithms
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)While storm identification and tracking algorithms are used both operationally and in research, there exists no single standard technique to objectively determine performance of such algorithms. Thus, a comparative skill ... -
Quantification of QLCS Tornadogenesis, Associated Characteristics, and Environments across a Large Sample
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)The skillful anticipation of tornadoes produced by quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs) is a well-known forecasting challenge. This study was motivated by the possibility that warning accuracy of QLCS tornadoes depends ... -
Attribution of North American Subseasonal Precipitation Prediction Skill
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)The skill of NOAA’s official monthly U.S. precipitation forecasts (issued in the middle of the prior month) has historically been low, having shown modest skill over the southern United States, but little or no skill over ... -
Forecast Dropouts in the NAVGEM Model: Characterization with Respect to Other Models, Large-Scale Indices, and Ensemble Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)A forecast “bust” or “dropout” can be defined as an intermittent but significant loss of model forecast performance. Deterministic forecast dropouts are typically defined in terms of the 500-hPa geopotential height (Φ