Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 261-280 of 3043
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Sensitivity to Localization Radii for an Ensemble Filter Numerical Weather Prediction System with 30-Second Update
(American Meteorological Society, 2023) -
Comparison between the Operational and Statistical Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature Forecasts on the Central Coast of Peru
(American Meteorological Society, 2023) -
Using Artificial Neural Networks to Improve CFS Week-3–4 Precipitation and 2-m Air Temperature Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2023) -
Radar Reflectivity–Based Model Initialization Using Specified Latent Heating (Radar-LHI) within a Diabatic Digital Filter or Pre-Forecast Integration
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)A technique for model initialization using three-dimensional radar reflectivity data has been developed and applied within the NOAA 13-km Rapid Refresh (RAP) and 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) regional forecast ... -
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): An Hourly Updating Convection-Allowing Forecast Model. Part II: Forecast Performance
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is a convection-allowing implementation of the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) Model that covers the conterminous United States and Alaska ... -
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): An Hourly Updating Convection-Allowing Forecast Model. Part I: Motivation and System Description
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is a convection-allowing implementation of the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) Model with hourly data assimilation that covers the ... -
Sub-Severe and Severe Hail
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)The occurrence and properties of hail smaller than severe thresholds (diameter < 25 mm) are poorly understood. Prior climatological hail studies have predominantly focused on large or severe hail (diameter at least 25 mm ... -
Predicting Rapid Intensification in North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones Using a Convolutional Neural Network
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)This study develops a probabilistic model based on a convolutional neural network to predict rapid intensification (RI) in both North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs). Coined “I-RI,” an advantage ... -
Skill Assessment of NCEP Three-Way Coupled HWRF–HYCOM–WW3 Modeling System: Hurricane Laura Case Study
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)In this research, we develop a three-way coupled prediction system to advance the realization of air–sea interaction processes. This study considers the sea-state-dependent momentum flux and nonlinear interactions between ... -
Corrigendum
(American Meteorological Society, 2022) -
An Intercomparison of Antarctic NWP during the Austral Summer Special Observing Period for the Year of Polar Prediction
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)The special observing periods (SOPs) of the Year of Polar Prediction present an opportunity to assess the skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models operating over the Antarctic, many of which assimilated additional ... -
The Forecast Skill of Tropical Cyclone Genesis in Two Global Ensembles
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis forecasts during 2018–20 from two operational global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) are evaluated over three basins in this study. The two ensembles are from the European Centre for ... -
Postprocessing of Ensemble Weather Forecast Using Decision Tree–Based Probabilistic Forecasting Methods
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Producing an accurate and calibrated probabilistic forecast has high social and economic value. Systematic errors or biases in the ensemble weather forecast can be corrected by postprocessing models whose development is ... -
ACCESS-C: Australian Convective-Scale NWP with Hourly 4D-Var Data Assimilation
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)The Australian Bureau of Meteorology recently upgraded its convection-allowing numerical weather prediction system, known as the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-C). ACCESS-C includes seven ... -
Do Machine Learning Approaches Offer Skill Improvement for Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Gust Occurrence and Magnitude?
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Wind gusts, and in particular intense gusts, are societally relevant but extremely challenging to forecast. This study systematically assesses the skill enhancement that can be achieved using artificial neural networks ... -
Random Forest Approach for Improving Nonconvective High Wind Forecasting across Southeast Wyoming
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)High winds are one of the key forecast challenges across southeast Wyoming. The complex mountainous terrain across the region frequently results in strong gap winds in localized areas, as well as more widespread bora and ... -
ProbSevere LightningCast: A Deep-Learning Model for Satellite-Based Lightning Nowcasting
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)Lightning strikes pose a hazard to human life and property, and can be difficult to forecast in a timely manner. In this study, a satellite-based machine learning model was developed to provide objective, short-term, ... -
A Conceptual Synoptic Model Approach to the Development of a Precipitation Climatology as Applied to Montreal, Quebec
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)This study documents the frequency and intensity of precipitation at Montreal, Canada, from 1979 to 2018 as it relates to four quadrants of a 500-hPa wave, identified by the position of troughs, ridges, and inflection ... -
Foundational Needs of Forecasters for Probabilistic Winter Forecasting
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)This study explores forecaster perceptions of emerging needs for probabilistic forecasting of winter weather hazards through a nationwide survey disseminated to National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters. Questions addressed ... -
The Impact of Data Latency on Operational Global Weather Forecasting
(American Meteorological Society, 2022)The impact of low data latency is assessed using observations assimilated into the NCEP Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Global Forecast System (FV3GFS). Operationally, a full dataset is used to generate short-term (9-h) forecasts ...