Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1661-1680 of 3043
-
Objective Bias Correction for Improved Skill in Forecasting Diurnal Cycles of Temperature over Multiple Locations: The Summer Case
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)One factor that limits skill of the numerical models is the bias in the model forecasts with respect to observations. Similarly, while the mesoscale models today can support horizontal grid spacing down to a few kilometers ... -
GPCE-AX: An Anisotropic Extension to the Goerss Predicted Consensus Error in Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)method to predict an anisotropic expected forecast error distribution for consensus forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks is presented. The method builds upon the Goerss predicted consensus error (GPCE), which predicts ... -
Neighborhood-Based Verification of Precipitation Forecasts from Convection-Allowing NCAR WRF Model Simulations and the Operational NAM
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)Since 2003 the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has been running various experimental convection-allowing configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) for domains covering a large portion ... -
Assessing Advances in the Assimilation of Radar Data and Other Mesoscale Observations within a Collaborative Forecasting–Research Environment
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)The impacts of assimilating radar data and other mesoscale observations in real-time, convection-allowing model forecasts were evaluated during the spring seasons of 2008 and 2009 as part of the Hazardous Weather Test Bed ... -
The Canadian Regional Data Assimilation and Forecasting System
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)This paper describes the recent changes to the regional data assimilation and forecasting system at the Canadian Meteorological Center. A major aspect is the replacement of the currently operational global variable resolution ... -
Short- and Medium-Range Prediction of Tropical and Transitioning Cyclone Tracks within the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasting System
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)The NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) is examined in its ability to predict tropical cyclone and extratropical transition (ET) positions. Forecast and observed tracks are compared in Atlantic and western North ... -
A Prediction Model for Atlantic Named Storm Frequency Using a Year-by-Year Increment Approach
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)This paper presents a year-by-year incremental approach to forecasting the Atlantic named storm frequency (ATSF) for the hurricane season (1 June?30 November). The year-by-year increase or decrease in the ATSF is first ... -
Formation of the Philippine Twin Tropical Cyclones during the 2008 Summer Monsoon Onset
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)Stretched from Indochina, across the South China Sea, to the Philippine Sea, a monsoon cyclonic shear flow was formed by easterlies of the cold surge-like flow in the north and monsoon westerlies in the south before the ... -
Multidisciplinary Analysis of an Unusual Tornado: Meteorology, Climatology, and the Communication and Interpretation of Warnings
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)On 22 May 2008, a strong tornado?rated EF3 on the enhanced Fujita scale, with winds estimated between 136 and 165 mi h?1 (61 and 74 m s?1)?caused extensive damage along a 55-km track through northern Colorado. The worst ... -
Impact of Resolution Degradation of the Initial Condition on Typhoon Track Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)The operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems at the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) indicated that the typhoon track forecasts made by the control member of the ensemble prediction system (EPS) tended to ... -
Using the 21 June 2008 California Lightning Outbreak to Improve Dry Lightning Forecast Procedures
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)An anomalous lightning event occurred on 20?21 June 2008 in central and northern California. Most of the thunderstorms produced frequent lightning with little precipitation, resulting in over 1500 new fires. Many of these ... -
Investigating the Potential of Using Radar Echo Reflectivity to Nowcast Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Initiation over Southern Ontario
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)The potential for using radar echo reflectivity to forecast cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning initiation in the 0?1-h time frame was investigated in southern Ontario, Canada. The main purpose of this investigation was to ... -
Convection-Allowing and Convection-Parameterizing Ensemble Forecasts of a Mesoscale Convective Vortex and Associated Severe Weather Environment
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)An analysis of a regional severe weather outbreak that was related to a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is performed. The MCV-spawning mesoscale convection system (MCS) formed in northwest Kansas along the southern ... -
NAM Model Forecasts of Warm-Season Quasi-Stationary Frontal Environments in the Central United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)Using a composite procedure, North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) forecast and observed environments associated with zonally oriented, quasi-stationary surface fronts for 64 cases during July?August 2006?08 were examined ... -
Characteristics of Sonoran Desert Microbursts
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)During the 2008 North American monsoon season, 140 microburst events were identified in Phoenix, Arizona, and the surrounding Sonoran Desert. The Sonoran microbursts were studied and examined for their frequency and ... -
Anthropogenic Moisture Effects on WRF Summertime Surface Temperature and Mixing Ratio Forecast Skill In Southern California
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)Mesoscale forecasts for the Los Angeles basin made with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University?National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) exhibited a moderate to substantial warm temperature ... -
Atmospheric Scale Interaction on Wintertime Intermountain West Low-Level Inversions
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)Persistent winter inversions result in poor air quality in the Intermountain West of the United States. Although the onset of an inversion is relatively easy to predict, the duration and the subsequent breakup of a persistent ... -
A Comparative Verification of Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program (LAMP) and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Model Forecasts of Ceiling Height and Visibility
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)In an effort to support aviation forecasting, the National Weather Service?s Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) has recently redeveloped the Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics (MOS) Program (LAMP) system. ... -
The Response of Performance Metrics for Binary Forecasts to Hedging that Approaches Random Change
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)Critical performance ratio (CPR) expressions for the eight conditional probabilities associated with the 2 ? 2 contingency table of outcomes for binary (dichotomous ?yes? or ?no?) forecasts are derived. Two are shown to ... -
Warm Season Afternoon Thunderstorm Characteristics under Weak Synoptic-Scale Forcing over Taiwan Island
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)The spatial and temporal characteristics and distributions of thunderstorms in Taiwan during the warm season (May?October) from 2005 to 2008 and under weak synoptic-scale forcing are documented using radar reflectivity, ...