Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1641-1660 of 3043
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Improving Probabilistic Ensemble Forecasts of Convection through the Application of QPF–POP Relationships
(American Meteorological Society, 2011)our new approaches of postprocessing quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from model ensemble output were used to generate probability of precipitation (POP) tables in order to develop a forecasting method that could ... -
A Weather-Pattern-Based Approach to Evaluate the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) Forecasts: Comparison to Automatic Weather Station Observations
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)ypical model evaluation strategies evaluate models over large periods of time (months, seasons, years, etc.) or for single case studies such as severe storms or other events of interest. The weather-pattern-based model ... -
Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP) Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)nsemble tropical rainfall potential (eTRaP) has been developed to improve short-range forecasts of heavy rainfall in tropical cyclones. Evolving from the tropical rainfall potential (TRaP), a 24-h rain forecast based on ... -
Extracting Unique Information from High-Resolution Forecast Models: Monitoring Selected Fields and Phenomena Every Time Step
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)A new strategy for generating and presenting model diagnostic fields from convection-allowing forecast models is introduced. The fields are produced by computing temporal-maximum values for selected diagnostics at each ... -
A Diagnostic Examination of the Eastern Ontario and Western Quebec Wintertime Convection Event of 28 January 2010
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)he priority of an operational forecast center is to issue watches, warnings, and advisories to notify the public about the inherent risks and dangers of a particular event. Occasionally, events occur that do not meet ... -
Radar Nowcasting of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning over Houston, Texas
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)en years (1997?2006) of summer (June?August) daytime (1400?0000 UTC) Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler data for Houston, Texas, were examined to determine the best radar-derived predictors of the first cloud-to-ground ... -
Effects of Surface Heat and Moisture Exchange on ARW-WRF Warm-Season Precipitation Forecasts over the Central United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)The evolution of the daytime planetary boundary layer (PBL) and its association with warm-season precipitation is strongly impacted by land?atmosphere heat and moisture exchange (hereafter surface exchange). However, ... -
A Climatology of Fatal Convective Wind Events by Storm Type
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)There are still hundreds of casualties produced by thunderstorm hazards each year in the United States despite the many recent advances in prediction and mitigation of the effects of convective storms. Of the four most ... -
Hindcasting the January 2009 Arctic Sudden Stratospheric Warming and Its Influence on the Arctic Oscillation with Unified Parameterization of Orographic Drag in NOGAPS. Part I: Extended-Range Stand-Alone Forecast
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)A very strong Arctic major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event occurred in late January 2009. The stratospheric temperature climbed abruptly and the zonal winds reversed direction, completely splitting the polar ... -
Does Increased Horizontal Resolution Improve Hurricane Wind Forecasts?
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)The representation of tropical cyclone track, intensity, and structure in a set of 69 parallel forecasts performed at each of two horizontal grid increments with the Advanced Research Hurricane (AHW) component of the Weather ... -
Case Studies of Easterly Wave Disturbances over Northeast Brazil Using the Eta Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)his research aims to analyze two easterly wave disturbance events that reached the east coast of Northeast Brazil (NEB) on 15 May 2005 and 20 June 2006. The performance of the regional Eta Model was evaluated through four ... -
Spatial Distribution and Evolution of Extratropical Cyclone Errors over North America and its Adjacent Oceans in the NCEP Global Forecast System Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)hort- to medium-range (1?5 day) forecasts of extratropical cyclones around North America and its adjacent oceans are verified within the Global Forecast System (GFS) model at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction ... -
Joint Diagnostic of the Surface Air Temperature in Southern South America and the Madden–Julian Oscillation
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)The objective of this research is to explore the relationship between maximum and minimum temperatures, daily precipitation, and the Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO). It was found that the different phases of the MJO show ... -
CFS Prediction of Winter Persistent Inversions in the Intermountain Region
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)A recent study by Gillies and others of persistent inversion events in the Intermountain West of the United States found a substantive linkage between the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and the development of persistent ... -
Nowcasting Challenges during the Beijing Olympics: Successes, Failures, and Implications for Future Nowcasting Systems
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)The Beijing 2008 Forecast Demonstration Project (B08FDP) included a variety of nowcasting systems from China, Australia, Canada, and the United States. A goal of the B08FDP was to demonstrate state-of-the-art nowcasting ... -
Some Implications of Core Regime Wind Structures in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)In this study, a tropical cyclone (TC) is considered to be compact if 1) the radius of maximum wind or the maximum tangential wind is smaller than what would be expected for an average tropical cyclone of the same intensity ... -
A Retrospective Evaluation of the Storm Surge Produced by Hurricane Gustav (2008): Forecast and Hindcast Results
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)The evolution and convergence of modeled storm surge were examined using a high-resolution implementation of the Advanced Circulation Coastal Ocean and Storm Surge (ADCIRC) model for Hurricane Gustav (2008). The storm surge ... -
Tropical Cyclone–like Vortices Detection in the NCEP 16-Day Ensemble System over the Western North Pacific in 2008: Application and Forecast Evaluation
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)An automated technique has been developed for the detection and tracking of tropical cyclone?like vortices (TCLVs) in numerical weather prediction models, and especially for ensemble-based models. A TCLV is detected in the ... -
Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Activity Near Taiwan Using the Bayesian Multivariate Regression Method
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)A Poisson generalized linear regression model cast within a Bayesian framework is applied to forecast the seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) counts in the vicinity of Taiwan. The TC season considered is June?November and the ... -
Predicting Typhoon Morakot’s Catastrophic Rainfall with a Convection-Permitting Mesoscale Ensemble System
(American Meteorological Society, 2010)This study examines the prediction and predictability of the recent catastrophic rainfall and flooding event over Taiwan induced by Typhoon Morakot (2009) with a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. A ...