Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions

Now showing items 1681-1700 of 3043

    • Consistent Tropical Cyclone Wind and Wave Forecasts for the U.S. Navy 

      Sampson, Charles R.; Wittmann, Paul A.; Tolman, Hendrik L. (American Meteorological Society, 2010)
      A new algorithm to generate wave heights consistent with tropical cyclone official forecasts from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has been developed. The process involves generating synthetic observations from the ...

    • A Two-Season Impact Study of the WindSat Surface Wind Retrievals in the NCEP Global Data Assimilation System 

      Bi, Li; Jung, James A.; Morgan, Michael C.; Le Marshall, John F. (American Meteorological Society, 2010)
      A two-season observing system experiment (OSE) was used to quantify the impacts of assimilating the WindSat surface winds product developed by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL). The impacts of assimilating these surface ...

    • Ensemble-Based Forecast Uncertainty Analysis of Diverse Heavy Rainfall Events 

      Schumacher, Russ S.; Davis, Christopher A. (American Meteorological Society, 2010)
      This study examines widespread heavy rainfall over 5-day periods in the central and eastern United States. First, a climatology is presented that identifies events in which more than 100 mm of precipitation fell over more ...

    • Forecasting the Maintenance of Mesoscale Convective Systems Crossing the Appalachian Mountains 

      Letkewicz, Casey E.; Parker, Matthew D. (American Meteorological Society, 2010)
      Forecasting the maintenance of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is a unique problem in the eastern United States due to the influence of the Appalachian Mountains. At times these systems are able to traverse the terrain ...

    • An Evaluation of Dvorak Technique–Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimates 

      Knaff, John A.; Brown, Daniel P.; Courtney, Joe; Gallina, Gregory M.; Beven, John L. (American Meteorological Society, 2010)
      The satellite-based Dvorak technique (DVKT) is the most widely available and readily used tool for operationally estimating the maximum wind speeds associated with tropical cyclones. The DVKT itself produces internally ...

    • Analog Sky Condition Forecasting Based on a k-nn Algorithm 

      Hall, Timothy J.; Thessin, Rachel N.; Bloy, Greg J.; Mutchler, Carl N. (American Meteorological Society, 2010)
      Very short-range, cloudy?clear sky condition forecasts are important for a variety of military, civil, and commercial activities. In this investigation, an approach based on a k-nearest neighbors (k-nn) algorithm was ...

    • A Diagnostic Examination of Consecutive Extreme Cool-Season Precipitation Events at St. John’s, Newfoundland, in December 2008 

      Milrad, Shawn M.; Atallah, Eyad H.; Gyakum, John R. (American Meteorological Society, 2010)
      St. John?s, Newfoundland, Canada (CYYT), is frequently affected by extreme precipitation events, particularly in the cool season (October?April). Previous work classified precipitation events at CYYT into categories by ...

    • Assessing the Impacts of Proximity Sounding Criteria on the Climatology of Significant Tornado Environments 

      Potvin, Corey K.; Elmore, Kimberly L.; Weiss, Steven J. (American Meteorological Society, 2010)
      Proximity sounding studies typically seek to optimize several trade-offs that involve somewhat arbitrary definitions of how to define a ?proximity sounding.? More restrictive proximity criteria, which presumably produce ...

    • Calibration and Downscaling Methods for Quantitative Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts 

      Voisin, Nathalie; Schaake, John C.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P. (American Meteorological Society, 2010)
      Two approaches for downscaling and calibrating error estimates from ensemble precipitation forecasts are evaluated; the two methods are intended to be used to produce flood forecasts based on global weather forecasts in ...

    • The Association of the Elevated Mixed Layer with Significant Severe Weather Events in the Northeastern United States 

      Banacos, Peter C.; Ekster, Michael L. (American Meteorological Society, 2010)
      The occurrence of rare but significant severe weather events associated with elevated mixed-layer (EML) air in the northeastern United States is investigated herein. A total of 447 convective event days with one or more ...

    • Impacts of Assimilating AMMA Soundings on ECMWF Analyses and Forecasts 

      Agustí-Panareda, Anna; Beljaars, Anton; Cardinali, Carla; Genkova, Iliana; Thorncroft, Chris (American Meteorological Society, 2010)
      The field experiment of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) project during the 2006 wet monsoon season provided an unprecedented amount of radiosonde/dropsonde data over the West African region. This paper ...

    • Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change before U.S. Gulf Coast Landfall 

      Rappaport, Edward N.; Franklin, James L.; Schumacher, Andrea B.; DeMaria, Mark; Shay, Lynn K.; Gibney, Ethan J. (American Meteorological Society, 2010)
      Tropical cyclone intensity change remains a forecasting challenge with important implications for such vulnerable areas as the U.S. coast along the Gulf of Mexico. Analysis of 1979?2008 Gulf tropical cyclones during their ...

    • Analyzing the Image Warp Forecast Verification Method on Precipitation Fields from the ICP 

      Gilleland, Eric; Lindström, Johan; Lindgren, Finn (American Meteorological Society, 2010)
      Image warping for spatial forecast verification is applied to the test cases employed by the Spatial Forecast Verification Intercomparison Project (ICP), which includes both real and contrived cases. A larger set of cases ...

    • An Assessment of the CFS Real-Time Seasonal Forecasts 

      Wang, Wanqiu; Chen, Mingyue; Kumar, Arun (American Meteorological Society, 2010)
      This study assesses the real-time seasonal forecasts for 2005?08 with the current National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS). The forecasts are compared with retrospective forecasts ...

    • Environment Associated with Deep Moist Convection under SALLJ Conditions: A Case Study 

      Borque, Paloma; Salio, Paola; Nicolini, Matilde; García Skabar, Yanina (American Meteorological Society, 2010)
      The present work focuses on the study of the environmental conditions preceding the development of a group of subtropical mesoscale convective systems over central and northern Argentina on 6?7 February 2003 during the ...

    • A Local Formulation of the Ensemble Transform (ET) Analysis Perturbation Scheme 

      McLay, Justin; Bishop, Craig H.; Reynolds, Carolyn A. (American Meteorological Society, 2010)
      Following ideas from the local ensemble transform Kalman filter, a local formulation of the ensemble transform (ET) analysis perturbation scheme is developed by partitioning the numerical weather prediction model domain ...

    • A Gaussian Mixture Model Approach to Forecast Verification 

      Lakshmanan, Valliappa; Kain, John S. (American Meteorological Society, 2010)
      Verification methods for high-resolution forecasts have been based either on filtering or on objects created by thresholding the images. The filtering methods do not easily permit the use of deformation while identifying ...

    • Optical Flow for Verification 

      Marzban, Caren; Sandgathe, Scott (American Meteorological Society, 2010)
      Modern numerical weather prediction (NWP) models produce forecasts that are gridded spatial fields. Digital images can also be viewed as gridded spatial fields, and as such, techniques from image analysis can be employed ...

    • Modeling Extreme Rainfall, Winds, and Surge from Hurricane Isabel (2003) 

      Lin, Ning; Smith, James A.; Villarini, Gabriele; Marchok, Timothy P.; Baeck, Mary Lynn (American Meteorological Society, 2010)
      Landfalling tropical cyclones present major hazards for the eastern United States. Hurricane Isabel (September 2003) produced more than $3.3 billion in damages from wind, inland riverine flooding, and storm surge flooding, ...

    • An Examination of the Pressure–Wind Relationship for Intense Tropical Cyclones 

      Kieu, Chanh Q.; Chen, Hua; Zhang, Da-Lin (American Meteorological Society, 2010)
      In this study, the dynamical constraints underlining the pressure?wind relationship (PWR) for intense tropical cyclones (TCs) are examined with the particular focus on the physical connections between the maximum surface ...