Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1161-1180 of 3043
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CONUS-Wide Evaluation of National Weather Service Flash Flood Guidance Products
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)his study quantifies the skill of the National Weather Service?s (NWS) flash flood guidance (FFG) product. Generated by River Forecast Centers (RFCs) across the United States, local NWS Weather Forecast Offices compare ... -
Improving Effectiveness of Weather Risk Communication on the NWS Point-and-Click Web Page
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)he National Weather Service's (NWS) point-and-click (PnC) web page is a primary channel through which NWS directly provides routine and hazardous weather information to its users. The research presented here aims to improve ... -
Probabilistic Evaluation of the Dynamics and Prediction of Supertyphoon Megi (2010)
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)upertyphoon Megi was the most intense tropical cyclone (TC) of 2010. Megi tracked westward through the western North Pacific and crossed the Philippines on 18 October. Two days later, Megi made a sharp turn to the north, ... -
Tornado Probability of Detection and Lead Time as a Function of Convective Mode and Environmental Parameters
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)he ability to provide advanced warning on tornadoes can be impacted by variations in storm mode. This research evaluates 2 yr of National Weather Service (NWS) tornado warnings, verification reports, and radar-derived ... -
Quasi-Biweekly Mode and Its Modulation on the Diurnal Rainfall in Taiwan Forecasted by the CFS
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)he occurrence of diurnal afternoon convection in Taiwan undergoes substantial modulation from tropical intraseasonal oscillations in the western North Pacific, including the quasi-biweekly (QBW) mode. By analyzing surface ... -
Improvements to the Operational Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)he National Hurricane Center Hurricane Probability Program, which estimated the probability of a tropical cyclone passing within a specific distance of a selected set of coastal stations, was replaced by the more general ... -
A Comparison of Statistical Approaches for Seasonal Precipitation Prediction in Pakistan
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)he present study focuses on two statistical approaches for improving seasonal precipitation prediction skills for Pakistan. Precipitation over Pakistan is concentrated in July?August (JA), when droughts and floods occur ... -
Impact of Radiosonde Balloon Drift on Numerical Weather Prediction and Verification
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)adiosonde observations employed in real-time numerical weather prediction (NWP) applications are disseminated through the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) using alphanumeric codes. These codes do not include information ... -
Relating the Skill of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts to the Synoptic Environment
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)rior knowledge of the performance of a tropical cyclone intensity forecast holds the potential to increase the value of forecasts for end users. The values of certain dynamical parameters, such as storm speed, latitude, ... -
Objective Limits on Forecasting Skill of Rare Events
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)method for determining baselines of skill for the purpose of the verification of rare-event forecasts is described and examples are presented to illustrate the sensitivity to parameter choices. These ?practically perfect? ... -
Development of a Nationwide, Low-Level Wind Shear Mosaic in France
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)n algorithm for the detection of horizontal wind shear at low levels was developed. The algorithm makes use of data collected by all radars from the Application Radar à la Météorologie Infra-Synoptique (ARAMIS) operational ... -
Sensitivity of Bow-Echo Simulation to Microphysical Parameterizations
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)he sensitivity of a case study bow-echo simulation to eight different microphysical schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting model was tested, with a focus on graupel parameter characteristics. The graupel parameter ... -
Examination of Errors in Near-Surface Temperature and Wind from WRF Numerical Simulations in Regions of Complex Terrain
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)he performance of an advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) in predicting near-surface atmospheric temperature and wind conditions under various terrain and weather regimes is examined. ... -
Verification of Convection-Allowing WRF Model Forecasts of the Planetary Boundary Layer Using Sounding Observations
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)his study evaluates forecasts of thermodynamic variables from five convection-allowing configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with the Advanced Research core (WRF-ARW). The forecasts vary only ... -
Real-Time Upper-Ocean Temperature Observations from Aircraft during Operational Hurricane Reconnaissance Missions: AXBT Demonstration Project Year One Results
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)housands of aircraft observations of upper-ocean thermal structures have been obtained during hurricane and typhoon research field experiments in recent decades. The results from these experiments suggest a strong correlation ... -
Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific as Revealed by the 2008–09 YOTC Data
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)he Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) high-resolution global reanalysis dataset was analyzed to reveal precursor synoptic-scale disturbances related to tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the western North Pacific (WNP) during ... -
Weather Forecasting as a Learning Tool in a Large Service Course: Does Practice Make Perfect?
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)ach spring roughly 200 students, mostly nonmajors, enroll in the Introduction to Meteorology course at Iowa State University and are required to make at least 25 forecasts throughout the semester. The Dynamic Weather ... -
Discriminating Environmental Conditions for Significant Warm Sector and Boundary Tornadoes in Parts of the Great Plains
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)sing system-relative composites, based on a dataset of significant tornadoes and null supercell events, environmental conditions associated with occurrences of significant tornadoes near discernible surface boundaries were ... -
Measured Severe Convective Wind Climatology and Associated Convective Modes of Thunderstorms in the Contiguous United States, 2003–09
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)severe thunderstorm wind gust climatology spanning 2003?09 for the contiguous United States is developed using measured Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) and Automated Weather Observing System (AWOS) wind gusts. ... -
Correcting Marine Surface Winds Simulated in Atmospheric Models Using Spatially and Temporally Varying Linear Regression
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)his study examines the application of three different variations of linear-regression corrections to the surface marine winds from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology?s recently implemented operational atmospheric model. ...