Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1181-1200 of 3043
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Classification and Conceptual Models for Heavy Snowfall Events over East Vancouver Island of British Columbia, Canada
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)he East Vancouver Island region on the west coast of Canada is prone to heavy snow in winter due to its unique geographical setting, which involves complicated interactions among the atmosphere, ocean, and local topography. ... -
A Real-Time Weather-Adaptive 3DVAR Analysis System for Severe Weather Detections and Warnings
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)real-time, weather-adaptive three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system has been adapted for the NOAA Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) project to incorporate all available radar observations within a moveable ... -
Dryline Position Errors in Experimental Convection-Allowing NSSL-WRF Model Forecasts and the Operational NAM
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)his study evaluates 24-h forecasts of dryline position from an experimental 4-km grid-spacing version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) run daily at the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), as well ... -
Organizational Modes of Mesoscale Convective Systems over Central East China
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)omposite reflectivity Doppler radar data from June to September of 2007?2010 were used to classify mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over central east China into seven morphologies. The morphologies included one nonlinear ... -
Improvement of Typhoon Precipitation Forecast Efficiency by Coupling SSM/I Microwave Data with Climatologic Characteristics and Precipitation
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)rediction of flash floods in an accurate and timely fashion is one of the most important challenges in weather prediction. This study aims to address the rainfall prediction problem for quantitative precipitation forecasts ... -
Nonlinear Characteristics of Ensemble Perturbation Evolution and Their Application to Forecasting High-Impact Events
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)nsemble forecasting is becoming an increasingly important aspect of numerical weather prediction. As ensemble perturbation evolution becomes more nonlinear as a forecast evolves, the ensemble mean can diverge from the model ... -
Evaluation of Various Surface Wind Products with OceanSITES Buoy Measurements
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)o facilitate evaluation and monitoring of numerical weather prediction model forecasts and satellite-based products against high-quality in situ observations, a data repository for collocated model forecasts, a satellite ... -
Evaluation of Cold-Season Precipitation Forecasts Generated by the Hourly Updating High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)he hourly updating High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model is evaluated with regard to its ability to predict the areal extent of cold-season precipitation and accurately depict the timing and location of regions of ... -
A Trajectory Approach to Analyzing the Ingredients Associated with Heavy Winter Storms in Central North Carolina
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)inter storms, namely snowstorms and ice storms, are a major hazard and forecasting challenge across central North Carolina. This study employed a trajectory approach to analyze the ingredients (i.e., temperature, moisture, ... -
Ensemble-Based Exigent Analysis. Part I: Estimating Worst-Case Weather-Related Forecast Damage Scenarios
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)xigent analysis supplements an ensemble forecast of weather-related damage with a map of the worst-case scenario (WCS), a multivariate confidence bound of the damage. For multivariate Gaussian ensembles, ensemble-based ... -
Ensemble-Based Exigent Analysis. Part II: Using Ensemble Regression to Estimate Conditions Antecedent to Worst-Case Forecast Damage Scenarios
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)n Part I of this series on ensemble-based exigent analysis, a Lagrange multiplier minimization technique is used to estimate the exigent damage state (ExDS), the ?worst case? with respect to a user-specified damage function ... -
An Improved Method for Estimating Radar Echo-Top Height
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)t is demonstrated that the traditional method, in widespread use on Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) and other radar systems, to compute echo-top heights results in both under- and overestimates. It is proposed that ... -
Tropical Cyclone Formation Guidance Using Pregenesis Dvorak Climatology. Part I: Operational Forecasting and Predictive Potential
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)hile there are a variety of modes for tropical cyclone (TC) development, there have been relatively few efforts to systematically catalog both nondeveloping and developing cases. This paper introduces an operationally ... -
Transition of the Coastal and Estuarine Storm Tide Model to an Operational Storm Surge Forecast Model: A Case Study of the Florida Coast
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)he operational forecast demands and constraints of the National Hurricane Center require that a storm surge model in research mode be tested against a benchmark model such as Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes ... -
Monthly Average Temperature Modeling in an Intertropical Region
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)ata for this research come from time series of monthly average temperatures from 28 sites over the Valle del Cauca of Colombia in South America, collected over the period 1971?2002. Because of the geographical location of ... -
A Strategy for Verifying Near-Convection-Resolving Model Forecasts at Observing Sites
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)outine verification of deterministic numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts from the convection-permitting 4-km (UK4) and near-convection-resolving 1.5-km (UKV) configurations of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) ... -
Influence of Mesonet Observations on the Accuracy of Surface Analyses Generated by an Ensemble Kalman Filter
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)he expansion of surface mesoscale networks (mesonets) across the United States provides a high-resolution observational dataset for meteorological analysis and prediction. To clarify the impact of mesonet data on the ... -
Precipitation Modulation by the Saint Lawrence River Valley in Association with Transitioning Tropical Cyclones
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)he St. Lawrence River valley (SLRV) is an important orographic feature in eastern Canada that can affect surface wind patterns and contribute to locally higher amounts of precipitation. The impact of the SLRV on precipitation ... -
An Automated Method for Depicting Mesocyclone Paths and Intensities
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)he location and intensity of mesocyclone circulations can be tracked in real time by accumulating azimuthal shear values over time at every location of a uniform spatial grid. Azimuthal shear at low (0?3 km AGL) and midlevels ... -
Twenty-One Years of Verification from the HIRLAM NWP System
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)he High-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM) international research program maintains a synoptic-scale NWP system. At the Finnish Meteorological Institute, the HIRLAM system has been run operationally since 1990. The ...