Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1201-1220 of 3043
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Track and Intensity Forecasting of Hurricanes: Impact of Convection-Permitting Resolution and Global Ensemble Kalman Filter Analysis on 2010 Atlantic Season Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)wice-daily 48-h tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts were produced for the fall 2010 Atlantic hurricane season using the Advanced Research core of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model on a large 4-km grid covering ... -
Seasonal Forecasting in the Pacific Using the Coupled Model POAMA-2
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)he development of a dynamical model seasonal prediction service for island nations in the tropical South Pacific is described. The forecast model is the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Predictive Ocean?Atmosphere Model ... -
Impact of ASCAT Scatterometer Wind Observations on the High-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM) within an Operational Context
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)enial experiments, also denoted observing system experiments (OSEs), are used to determine the impact of an observing system on the forecast quality of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. When the impact is neutral ... -
A Comparison of Skill between Two Versions of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and CPC’s Operational Short-Lead Seasonal Outlooks
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)nalyses of the relative prediction skills of NOAA?s Climate Forecast System versions 1 and 2 (CFSv1 and CFSv2, respectively), and the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center?s (CPC) operational seasonal outlook, are conducted over ... -
Evaluation of Wave Forecasts Consistent with Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wind Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)n algorithm to generate wave fields consistent with forecasts from the official U.S. tropical cyclone forecast centers has been made available in near?real time to forecasters since summer 2007. The algorithm removes the ... -
Calibrated Short-Range Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts Using Extended Logistic Regression with Interaction Terms
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)xtended logistic regression has been shown to be a method well suited to calibrating precipitation forecasts from medium-range ensemble prediction systems. The extension of the logistic regression unifies the separate ... -
Simulated Vortex Detection Using a Four-Face Phased-Array Doppler Radar
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)he National Weather Radar Testbed was established in Norman, Oklahoma, in 2002 to evaluate, in part, the feasibility of eventually replacing mechanically scanned parabolic antennas with electronically scanned phased-array ... -
Evaluation of the Storm Prediction Center’s Day 1 Convective Outlooks
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)he Storm Prediction Center has issued daily convective outlooks since the mid-1950s. This paper represents an initial effort to examine the quality of these forecasts. Convective outlooks are plotted on a latitude?longitude ... -
An Inner-Shelf Wave Forecasting System for the U.S. Pacific Northwest
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)n operational inner-shelf wave forecasting system was implemented for the Oregon and southwest Washington coast in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). High-resolution wave forecasts are useful for navigational planning, ... -
Topographic Speed-Up Effects and Observed Roof Damage on Bermuda following Hurricane Fabian (2003)
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)n this study the impacts of the topography of Bermuda on the damage patterns observed following the passage of Hurricane Fabian over the island on 5 September 2003 are considered. Using a linearized model of atmospheric ... -
Evaluation of a Wind-Wave System for Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Wave Forecasting. Part I: Winds
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)computationally efficient method of producing tropical cyclone (TC) wind analyses is developed and tested, using a hindcast methodology, for 12 Gulf of Mexico storms. The analyses are created by blending synthetic data, ... -
Development of a Probabilistic Convective Weather Forecast Threshold Parameter for Flight-Routing Decisions
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)his paper presents a method for determining a threshold value of probabilistic convective weather forecast data. By synchronizing air traffic data and an experimental probabilistic convective weather forecast product, it ... -
Evaluation of a Wind-Wave System for Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Wave Forecasting. Part II: Waves
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)wind-wave forecast system, designed with the intention of generating unbiased ensemble wave forecasts for extreme wind events, is assessed. Wave hindcasts for 12 tropical cyclones (TCs) are forced using a wind analysis ... -
A Proposal for Analyzing and Forecasting Lower-Atmospheric Undular Bores in the Western Gulf of Mexico Region
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)method is presented for analyzing and forecasting the occurrence of lower-atmospheric undular bores over the western and central Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and adjacent land areas using standard operational forecasting and ... -
The Operational Implementation of a Great Lakes Wave Forecasting System at NOAA/NCEP
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)he development of a Great Lakes wave forecasting system at NOAA?s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is described. The system is an implementation of the WAVEWATCH III model, forced with atmospheric data ... -
Impact of Flow Dependence, Column Covariance, and Forecast Model Type on Surface-Observation Assimilation for Probabilistic PBL Profile Nowcasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)probabilistic verification and factor-separation analysis (FSA) elucidate skillful nowcasts of planetary boundary layer (PBL) temperature, moisture, and wind profiles with a single-column model (SCM) and ensemble filter ... -
A Comparison of Wind Speed and Forest Damage Associated with Tornadoes in Northern Arizona
(American Meteorological Society, 2012)amage surveys in the aftermath of tornadoes occurring in the forested regions of the Mogollon Rim in northern Arizona have been assessed using the enhanced Fujita scale (EF scale) damage indicator (DI) and degree of damage ... -
H. L. Wagner's Unbiased Hit Rate and the Assessment of Categorical Forecasting Accuracy
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)he paper briefly reviews measures that have been proposed since the 1880s to assess accuracy and skill in categorical weather forecasting. The majority of the measures consist of a single expression, for example, a proportion, ... -
Environments of Northeast U.S. Severe Thunderstorm Events from 1999 to 2009
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)n investigation of the environments and climatology of severe thunderstorms from 1999 through 2009 across the northeastern United States is presented. A total of 742 severe weather events producing over 12 000 reports were ... -
Tornado Pathlength Forecasts from 2010 to 2011 Using Ensemble Updraft Helicity
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)xamining forecasts from the Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast (SSEF) system run by the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms for the 2010 NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment, recent research ...