Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1141-1160 of 3043
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The Calibration Simplex: A Generalization of the Reliability Diagram for Three-Category Probability Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)ull exposition of the performance of a set of forecasts requires examination of the joint frequency distribution of those forecasts and their corresponding observations. In settings involving probability forecasts, this ... -
Evaluation of Forecasts of the Water Vapor Signature of Atmospheric Rivers in Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Models
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)he ability of five operational ensemble forecast systems to accurately represent and predict atmospheric rivers (ARs) is evaluated as a function of lead time out to 10 days over the northeastern Pacific Ocean and west coast ... -
Analysis of the 18 July 2005 Tornadic Supercell over the Lake Geneva Region
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)n the afternoon of 18 July 2005, a particularly intense supercell thunderstorm struck the Lake Geneva region of Switzerland. The storm initiated just southwest of Lyon, France, and tracked over 300 km toward the northeast ... -
Development of a Mesoscale Ensemble Data Assimilation System at the Naval Research Laboratory
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)n ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been adopted and implemented at the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) for mesoscale and storm-scale data assimilation to study the impact of ensemble assimilation of high-resolution ... -
Comments on “An Objective High-Resolution Hail Climatology of the Contiguous United States”
(American Meteorological Society, 2013) -
The Impact of Dropwindsonde and Supplemental Rawinsonde Observations on Track Forecasts for Hurricane Irene (2011)
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)ecause of the threat that Hurricane Irene (2011) posed to the United States, supplemental observations were collected for assimilation into operational numerical models in the hope of improving forecasts of the storm. ... -
Forecasting the New York City Urban Heat Island and Sea Breeze during Extreme Heat Events
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)wo extreme heat events impacting the New York City (NYC), New York, metropolitan region during 7?10 June and 21?24 July 2011 are examined in detail using a combination of models and observations. The U.S. Navy's Coupled ... -
A Dynamic Inversion Model of the Beijing Local Climate
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)nonautonomous dynamic inverse model based on the autonomous dynamic inverse model is presented in this paper. By introducing the extrinsic cycle driving force and the surrounding environment driving force, the Beijing local ... -
Ensemble Sensitivity Tools for Assessing Extratropical Cyclone Intensity and Track Predictability
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)his paper applies ensemble sensitivity analysis to a U.S. East Coast snowstorm on 26?28 December 2010 in a way that may be beneficial for an operational forecaster to better understand the forecast uncertainties. Sensitivity ... -
The Development of a Statistical Forecast Model for Changma
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)orecasting year-to-year variations in East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation is one of the most challenging tasks in climate prediction because the predictors are not sufficiently well known and the forecast skill ... -
An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecasts from Global Numerical Models
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)ropical cyclone (TC) forecasts rely heavily on output from global numerical models. While considerable research has investigated the skill of various models with respect to track and intensity, few studies have considered ... -
Objective Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Using Analogs of Spatial Features in Satellite Data
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)n objective method for estimating tropical cyclone (TC) intensity using historical hurricane satellite data (HURSAT) is developed and tested. This new method, referred to as feature analogs in satellite imagery (FASI), ... -
The Impact of Large-Scale Forcing on Skill of Simulated Convective Initiation and Upscale Evolution with Convection-Allowing Grid Spacings in the WRF
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)set of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with 3-km grid spacing to investigate the skill at predicting convective initiation and upscale evolution into an ... -
Diagnosing Santa Ana Winds in Southern California with Synoptic-Scale Analysis
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)anta Ana winds (SAW) are among the most notorious fire-weather conditions in the United States and are implicated in wildfire and wind hazards in Southern California. This study employs large-scale reanalysis data to ... -
Using Frontogenesis to Identify Sting Jets in Extratropical Cyclones
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)ting jets, or surface wind maxima at the end of bent-back fronts in Shapiro?Keyser cyclones, are one cause of strong winds in extratropical cyclones. Although previous studies identified the release of conditional symmetric ... -
Finescale Radar Observations of Tornado and Mesocyclone Structures
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)variety of vortex configurations observed at finescale with Doppler On Wheels (DOW) radars in and near the hook echoes of supercell thunderstorms are described. These include marginal/weak tornadoes, often with no documented ... -
A Climatological Baseline for Assessing the Skill of Tropical Cyclone Phase Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)simple linear discriminant analysis scheme using climatological predictors is derived for the Atlantic basin as a no-skill baseline for operational phase forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The model with ... -
Classifying Proximity Soundings with Self-Organizing Maps toward Improving Supercell and Tornado Forecasting
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)he self-organizing map (SOM) statistical technique is applied to vertical profiles of thermodynamic and kinematic parameters from a Rapid Update Cycle-2 (RUC-2) proximity sounding dataset with the goal of better distinguishing ... -
Assessing Ensemble Forecasts of Low-Level Supercell Rotation within an OSSE Framework
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)nder the envisioned warn-on-forecast (WoF) paradigm, ensemble model guidance will play an increasingly critical role in the tornado warning process. While computational constraints will likely preclude explicit tornado ... -
Assimilating MTSAT-Derived Humidity in Nowcasting Sea Fog over the Yellow Sea
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)n extended three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) method based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is developed to assimilate satellite-derived humidity from sea fog at its initial stage ...