Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1121-1140 of 3043
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How Do Forecasters Utilize Output from a Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecast System? Case Study of a High-Impact Precipitation Event
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)he proliferation of ensemble forecast system output in recent years motivates this investigation into how operational forecasters utilize convection-permitting ensemble forecast system guidance in the forecast preparation ... -
Precursor Circulation Features for Persistent Extreme Precipitation in Central-Eastern China
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)sing a composite analysis, the typical precursor circulation configuration from the lower to the upper troposphere responsible for persistent extreme precipitation events (PEPEs) of double-blocking-high type in central-eastern ... -
Prediction of Consensus Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Error
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)he extent to which the tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecast error of IVCN and S5YY, consensus models routinely used by forecasters at the National Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, respectively, ... -
Extreme Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Performance at the Weather Prediction Center from 2001 to 2011
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)xtreme quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) performance is baselined and analyzed by NOAA?s Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) using 11 yr of 32-km gridded QPFs from NCEP?s Weather Prediction Center (WPC). The analysis ... -
An Evaluation of the Impact of Horizontal Resolution on Tropical Cyclone Predictions Using COAMPS-TC
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)series of experiments have been conducted using the Coupled Ocean?Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System?Tropical Cyclone (COAMPS-TC) to assess the impact of horizontal resolution on hurricane intensity prediction for 10 ... -
Forecasting Challenges Associated with Tropical Cyclones within Subtropical Gyres
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)his case study examines the complex history of a tropical storm that formed southeast of a large subtropical gyre. In real time the tropical storm was incorrectly identified as being two separate storms, and at one time ... -
Predicting Summer Rainfall over the Yangtze–Huai Region Based on Time-Scale Decomposition Statistical Downscaling
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)statistical downscaling scheme based on time-scale decomposition is adapted for summer rainfall prediction over the Yangtze?Huai River region of east China. The predictors are selected from atmospheric circulation variables ... -
Precipitation Calibration Based on the Frequency-Matching Method
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)postprocessing technique is employed to correct model bias for precipitation fields in real time based on a comparison of the frequency distributions of observed and forecast precipitation amounts. Essentially, a calibration ... -
Prediction of Convective Morphology in Near-Cloud-Permitting WRF Model Simulations
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)he Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model?s ability to forecast convective morphological evolution is examined for 37 convective systems. The simulations used Thompson microphysics with 3-km horizontal grid spacing. ... -
An Early Performance Evaluation of the NEXRAD Dual-Polarization Radar Rainfall Estimates for Urban Flood Applications
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)ual-polarization radars are expected to provide better rainfall estimates than single-polarization radars because of their ability to characterize hydrometeor type. The goal of this study is to evaluate single- and ... -
Damage Survey, Radar, and Environment Analyses on the First-Ever Documented Tornado in Beijing during the Heavy Rainfall Event of 21 July 2012
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)n 21 July 2012, severe wind damage occurred in Beijing, China, during a heavy rainfall event. Through a damage survey that had the most detailed information in all of the published tornado damage surveys so far in China, ... -
A Case Study in Modeling Low-Lying Inversions and Stratocumulus Cloud Cover in the Bay of Biscay
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)any regional forecasting models struggle to simulate low-lying strong temperature inversions. To understand this apparent deficit for forecast improvements, a case study of a strong inversion occurring in the Bay of Biscay ... -
Examination of a Real-Time 3DVAR Analysis System in the Hazardous Weather Testbed
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)orecasters and research meteorologists tested a real-time three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system in the Hazardous Weather Testbed during the springs of 2010?12 to determine its capabilities to assist ... -
Synoptic Typing and Precursors of Heavy Warm-Season Precipitation Events at Montreal, Québec
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)precipitation climatology is compiled for warm-season events at Montreal, Québec, Canada, using 6-h precipitation data. A total of 1663 events are recorded and partitioned into three intensity categories (heavy, moderate, ... -
Mesoscale Data Assimilation for a Local Severe Rainfall Event with the NHM–LETKF System
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)his study seeks to improve forecasts of local severe weather events through data assimilation and ensemble forecasting approaches using the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) implemented with the Japan ... -
Climatology and Ingredients of Significant Severe Convection in High-Shear, Low-CAPE Environments
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)igh-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) environments, here characterized by surface-based CAPE ≤ 500 J kg?1, most unstable parcel CAPE ≤ 1000 J kg?1, and 0?6-km shear vector magnitude ≥ 18 m s?1, occur at all times of day, across all ... -
Numerical Prediction of the 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City Tornadic Supercell and Embedded Tornado Using ARPS with the Assimilation of WSR-88D Data
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)he 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, tornadic supercell is predicted with the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model using four nested grids with 9-km, 1-km, 100-m, and 50-m grid spacings. The Oklahoma City ... -
An Evaluation of the Efficacy of Using Observed Lightning to Improve Convective Lightning Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)ynamic lightning forecasts [total and cloud to ground (CG)] were produced on a convection-allowing forecast grid with 4-km grid spacing with lightning assimilation (ASML) and without lightning assimilation [control (CNTL)]. ... -
The Advantages of a Mixed-Band Radar Network for Severe Weather Operations: A Case Study of 13 May 2009
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)dding a mix of X- or C-band radars to the current Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network could address several limitations of the network, including improvements to spatial gaps in low-level coverage and ... -
Strong Westerly Wind Events in the Strait of Juan de Fuca
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)trong westerly wind events occur regularly within and downstream of the Strait of Juan de Fuca of Washington State. During such strong gap wind periods, flow can accelerate to 30?50 kt (1 kt = 0.51 m s?1), with gusts ...