Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1101-1120 of 3043
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Assessing the Predictability of Convection Initiation in the High Plains Using an Object-Based Approach
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)his study investigates the short-range (0?12 h) predictability of convection initiation (CI) using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (ARW) with a horizontal grid spacing of 429 m. A unique ... -
The Influence of Tropical Cyclone Size on Its Intensification
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)his study investigates tropical cyclones of the past two decades (1990?2010) and the connection, if any, between their size and their ability to subsequently undergo rapid intensification (RI). Three different parameters ... -
Characteristics of Initial Perturbations in the Ensemble Prediction System of the Korea Meteorological Administration
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)n this study, the initial ensemble perturbation characteristics of the new Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) ensemble prediction system (EPS), a version of the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction ... -
A Parameter for Forecasting Tornadoes Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)he authors develop a statistical guidance product, the tropical cyclone tornado parameter (TCTP), for forecasting the probability of one or more tornadoes during a 6-h period that are associated with landfalling tropical ... -
Application of Object-Based Time-Domain Diagnostics for Tracking Precipitation Systems in Convection-Allowing Models
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)eaningful verification and evaluation of convection-allowing models requires approaches that do not rely on point-to-point matches of forecast and observed fields. In this study, one such approach?a beta version of the ... -
On the Calculation and Correction of Equitable Threat Score for Model Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for Small Verification Areas: The Example of Taiwan
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)s one of the most widely used skill scores for model quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) verification and evaluation, the equitable threat score ETS differs from the threat score TS in that the random hits R are ... -
Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Evaluated through 5-yr Forecasts with a Convection-Permitting Regional-Scale Model in the Atlantic Basin
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)he practical predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in terms of mean absolute forecast error with respect to different conditions at forecast initialization was explored through convection-permitting hindcasts ... -
A Procedure for Operational Use of Wave Hindcasts to Identify Landfall of Heavy Swell
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)he wave pattern on the Brazilian coastline is composed of both wind waves and swell. The wave systems (WSs), extracted from the spectra near the coast produced by numerical wave models, reveal the occasional presence of ... -
Extreme Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Vicente (2012) in the South China Sea
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)ne of the primary challenges for both tropical cyclone (TC) research and forecasting is the problem of intensity change. Accurately forecasting TC rapid intensification (RI) is particularly important to interests along ... -
Observations of the 14 July 2011 Fort Collins Hailstorm: Implications for WSR-88D-Based Hail Detection and Warnings
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)he issuance of timely warnings for the occurrence of severe-class hail (hailstone diameters of 2.5 cm or larger) remains an ongoing challenge for operational forecasters. This study examines the application of two remotely ... -
Nowcasting with the AROME Model: First Results from the High-Resolution AROME Airport
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)pplications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (AROME) Airport is the high-resolution version of the French operational numerical weather prediction model AROME. The purpose of AROME Airport is to provide rapidly updated ... -
Prediction of Seasonal Atlantic Basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy from 1 July
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)he Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University currently issues seasonal forecasts for Atlantic basin hurricane activity in early April, June, and August. This paper examines the potential for issuing an ... -
Cloud Initialization in the Rapid Update Cycle of HIRLAM
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)he Nowcasting Satellite Application Facility (NWC SAF) cloud mask from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite is introduced in the initialization step of an hourly Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) of the High Resolution ... -
Model Wind Field Forecast Verification Using Multiple-Doppler Syntheses from a National Radar Network
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)odel verification has traditionally relied upon in situ observations, which typically exist on a sparse network, making nonsurface model forecast verification difficult. Given increasing model resolution, supplemental ... -
A Physically Based Precipitation–Nonprecipitation Radar Echo Classifier Using Polarimetric and Environmental Data in a Real-Time National System
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)olarimetric radar observations provide information regarding the shape and size of scatterers in the atmosphere, which help users to differentiate between precipitation and nonprecipitation radar echoes. Identifying and ... -
The Three-Dimensional Structure and Evolution of a Tornado Boundary Layer
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)he finescale three-dimensional structure and evolution of the near-surface boundary layer of a tornado (TBL) is mapped for the first time. The multibeam Rapid-Scan Doppler on Wheels (RSDOW) collected data at several vertical ... -
The Potential for Mesoscale Visibility Predictions with a Multimodel Ensemble
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)his work examines the viability of producing short-range (<20 h) probabilistic fog predictions in remote locations, absent an observational history, using an uncalibrated 4-km, 10-member Weather Research and Forecasting ... -
An Objective Analysis of Tornado Risk in the United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)n this paper, an objective analysis of spatial tornado risk in the United States is performed, using a somewhat different dataset than in some previous tornado climatologies. The focus is on significant tornadoes because ... -
Precipitation and Temperature Forecast Performance at the Weather Prediction Center
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)he role of the human forecaster in improving upon the accuracy of numerical weather prediction is explored using multiyear verification of human-generated short-range precipitation forecasts and medium-range maximum ... -
Annular Typhoons in the Western North Pacific
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)nnular hurricanes, characterized by annular structure, are a subset of mature-stage intense tropical cyclones, and they tend to be stronger and persist longer than average tropical cyclones. The characteristics of annular ...