Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1081-1100 of 3043
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Finescale Orographic Precipitation Variability and Gap-Filling Radar Potential in Little Cottonwood Canyon, Utah
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)inescale variations in orographic precipitation pose a major challenge for weather prediction, winter road maintenance, and avalanche forecasting and mitigation in mountainous regions. In this investigation, ground-based ... -
An Examination of Wind Decay, Sustained Wind Speed Forecasts, and Gust Factors for Recent Tropical Cyclones in the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)n this study, several analyses were conducted that were aimed at improving sustained wind speed and gust forecasts for tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting coastal regions. An objective wind speed forecast analysis of recent ... -
Analysis of the 1 December 2011 Wasatch Downslope Windstorm
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)downslope windstorm on 1 December 2011 led to considerable damage along a narrow 50-km swath at the western base of the Wasatch Mountains in northern Utah. The strongest surface winds began suddenly at 0900 UTC, primarily ... -
Radar Climatology of Tornadic and Nontornadic Vortices in High-Shear, Low-CAPE Environments in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)ornadoes occurring in environments characterized by strong vertical wind shear [0?6-km bulk wind difference ≥35 knots (kt; 1 kt = 0.51 m s?1) (18 m s?1)] but low CAPE (<500 J kg?1) are an important challenge for forecasters, ... -
Determining an Optimal Decay Factor for Bias-Correcting MOS Temperature and Dewpoint Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)odel output statistics (MOS) forecast relationships for temperature and dewpoint developed with least squares regression and put into operation by the National Weather Service (NWS) are unbiased over the sample period of ... -
Assessing Real-Time Tornado Information Disseminated through NWS Products
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)eal-time confirmation of a tornado specified in National Weather Service (NWS) warnings and statements is believed to increase the credibility and urgency of these critical warning messages for the end user, because it ... -
The Role of a Polar/Subtropical Jet Superposition in the May 2010 Nashville Flood
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)ontributions to the increased poleward moisture flux that characterized the second day of the 1?3 May Nashville, Tennessee, flood of 2010 are examined from the perspective of polar and subtropical jet superposition and its ... -
Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction for the City of Venice
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)ea level (SL) forecast for the city of Venice, Italy, is of paramount importance for the management and maintenance of this historical city and for operating the movable barriers that are presently being built for its ... -
Extended-Range Forecasts of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Events during 2012 Using the ECMWF 32-Day Ensemble Predictions
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)revious studies have demonstrated the capability of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 51-member, 32-day ensemble to forecast tropical cyclone (TC) events (formation and tracks) in the western ... -
Case Study of a Split Front and Associated Precipitation during the Mei-Yu Season
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)his study investigated the relationship between a split front and precipitation over western Japan on 10?11 July 2007 based on data from routine observations and a global objective analysis. The split front formed at the ... -
Machine Learning Enhancement of Storm-Scale Ensemble Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)robabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts challenge meteorologists due to the wide variability of precipitation amounts over small areas and their dependence on conditions at multiple spatial and temporal scales. ... -
Forecaster Use and Evaluation of Real-Time 3DVAR Analyses during Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warning Operations in the Hazardous Weather Testbed
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)weather-adaptive three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system was included in the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed as a first step toward introducing warn-on-forecast initiatives into operations. NWS ... -
A Probabilistic Derivation of Heidke Skill Score
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)n alternative derivation of Heidke skill score for 2 ? 2 tables is presented, starting from the assumption that a categorical forecast is useful, if the probability of an occurrence of an event, given the forecast, is ... -
New Predictors and a Statistical Forecast Model for Mei-Yu Onset Date in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)he prediction of mei-yu onset date (MOD) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (MLYRV) is an important and challenging task for those making seasonal climate predictions in China. In this paper, the ... -
An Empirical Model for Assessing the Severe Weather Potential of Developing Convection
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)he formation and maintenance of thunderstorms that produce large hail, strong winds, and tornadoes are often difficult to forecast due to their rapid evolution and complex interactions with environmental features that are ... -
Skillful Wintertime North American Temperature Forecasts out to 4 Weeks Based on the State of ENSO and the MJO
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)revious work has shown that the combined influence of El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) significantly impacts the wintertime circulation over North America for lead times up to at ... -
Modeling of 137Cs as a Tracer in a Regional Model for the Western Pacific, after the Fukushima–Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident of March 2011
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)n this study, results are presented from the first operational ocean tracer dispersion model operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service/National Centers for Environmental ... -
Probability Distributions and Threshold Selection for Monte Carlo–Type Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)robabilistic wind speed forecasts for tropical cyclones from Monte Carlo?type simulations are assessed within a theoretical framework for a simple unbiased Gaussian system that is based on feature size and location error ... -
On the Dynamics, Thermodynamics, and Forecast Model Evaluation of Two Snow-Burst Events in Southern Alberta
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)wo high-impact convective snowband events (?snow bursts?) that affected Calgary, Alberta, Canada, are examined to better understand the dynamics and thermodynamics of heavy snowbands not associated with lake effects or the ... -
Predicting the Onset of the North Australian Wet Season with the POAMA Dynamical Prediction System
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)forecast product focusing on the onset of the north Australian wet season using a dynamical ocean?atmosphere model is developed and verified. Onset is defined to occur when a threshold rainfall accumulation of 50 mm is ...