Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1061-1080 of 3043
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Dynamical Prediction of the Early Season Rainfall over Southern China by the NCEP Climate Forecast System
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)he early season rainfall (ESR) over southern China, usually occurring from April to June, is a prominent meteorological phenomenon of the East Asian monsoon system. In this paper, output from the 45-day hindcast by the ... -
Classification of Hurricane Hazards: The Importance of Rainfall
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)new hazard index is presented to estimate and rank hurricane severity according to a storm?s damage and death toll after landfall on the continental United States. The index uses three characteristic meteorological aspects ... -
Sources of Uncertainty in Precipitation-Type Forecasting
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)ive implicit precipitation-type algorithms are assessed using observed and model-forecast sounding data in order to measure their accuracy and to gauge the effects of model uncertainty on algorithm performance. When applied ... -
A Method for Wind Speed Forecasting in Airports Based on Nonparametric Regression
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)ind is one of the parameters best predicted by numerical weather models, as it can be directly calculated from the physical equations of pressure that govern its movement. However, local winds are considerably affected by ... -
Mobile Observations of a Quasi-Frontal Transient Moisture Boundary in the Deep South
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)protocol for the collection and analysis of high-resolution (≤300 m) temperature and humidity data along a transect using an unmodified passenger vehicle is described. A case is investigated of a weak dissipating cold front ... -
Comments on “H. L. Wagner’s Unbiased Hit Rate and the Assessment of Categorical Forecasting Accuracy”
(American Meteorological Society, 2014) -
Reply to “Comments on ‘H. L. Wagner’s Unbiased Hit Rate and the Assessment of Categorical Forecasting Accuracy’”
(American Meteorological Society, 2014) -
Numerical Simulations of the Genesis of Typhoon Nuri (2008): Sensitivity to Initial Conditions and Implications for the Roles of Intense Convection and Moisture Conditions
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)he sensitivity of numerical simulations of the genesis of Typhoon Nuri (2008) to initial conditions is examined using the Advanced Research core of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The initial and boundary ... -
Mesoscale Convective Systems and Their Synoptic-Scale Environment in Finland
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)he environments within which high-latitude intense and nonintense mesoscale convective systems (iMCSs and niMCSs) and smaller thunderstorm clusters (sub-MCSs) develop were studied using proximity soundings. MCS statistics ... -
Computing Deep-Tropospheric Vertical Wind Shear Analyses for Tropical Cyclone Applications: Does the Methodology Matter?
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)ertical wind shear is well known in the tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting community as an important environmental influence on storm structure and intensity change. The traditional way to define deep-tropospheric vertical ... -
Simulation of the Summer Monsoon Rainfall over East Asia Using the NCEP GFS Cumulus Parameterization at Different Horizontal Resolutions
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)he most recent version of the simplified Arakawa?Schubert (SAS) cumulus scheme in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) (GFS SAS) is implemented in the Weather Research and ... -
Characterizing and Optimizing Precipitation Forecasts from a Convection-Permitting Ensemble Initialized by a Mesoscale Ensemble Kalman Filter
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)onvection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model forecasts with 3-km horizontal grid spacing were produced for a 50-member ensemble over a domain spanning three-quarters of the contiguous United States ... -
Reproducing the September 2013 Record-Breaking Rainfall over the Colorado Front Range with High-Resolution WRF Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)our convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) forecasts were produced in an attempt to replicate the record-breaking rainfall across the Colorado Front Range between 1200 UTC 11 September and 1200 ... -
Comparison of Surface Wind and Temperature Analyses from an Ensemble Kalman Filter and the NWS Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis System
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)perational, high-resolution analyses are a vital part of the National Weather Service (NWS) forecasting process. Currently, the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) system fills this need by providing hourly analyses using ... -
Beyond the Basics: Evaluating Model-Based Precipitation Forecasts Using Traditional, Spatial, and Object-Based Methods
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)hile traditional verification methods are commonly used to assess numerical model quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) using a grid-to-grid approach, they generally offer little diagnostic information or reasoning ... -
Evaluation of Forecast Performance of Asian Summer Monsoon Low-Level Winds Using the TIGGE Dataset
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he forecast performances of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) by six THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) centers during the summers of 2008?13 were evaluated to reflect ... -
Satellite-Derived Tropical Cyclone Intensity in the North Pacific Ocean Using the Deviation-Angle Variance Technique
(American Meteorological Society, 2013)he deviation-angle variance technique (DAV-T), which was introduced in the North Atlantic basin for tropical cyclone (TC) intensity estimation, is adapted for use in the North Pacific Ocean using the ?best-track center? ... -
Evaluation of the Storm Prediction Center’s Convective Outlooks from Day 3 through Day 1
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)he Storm Prediction Center issues four categorical convective outlooks with lead times as long as 48 h, the so-called day 3 outlook issued at 1200 UTC, and as short as 6 h, the day 1 outlook issued at 0600 UTC. Additionally, ... -
Numerical Analysis and Diagnosis of the Hydrodynamic Effects Produced by Hurricane Gordon along the Coast of Spain
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)his paper presents a detailed hindcast for the generation and propagation of sea state variables?significant wave height Hs, peak period Tp, mean direction ?, and spectral shape ? ?σ ?associated with cyclonic events to ... -
Ranking of Tornado Outbreaks across the United States and Their Climatological Characteristics
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)he calendar year 2011 was an extraordinary year for tornadoes across the United States, as it marked the second highest annual number of tornadoes since 1950 and was the deadliest tornado year since 1936. Most of the ...