Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1041-1060 of 3043
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Reconstruction and Forecast Experiments of a Statistical–Dynamical Model of the Western Pacific Subtropical High and East Asian Summer Monsoon Factors
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)bnormal activity of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) may result in extreme weather events in East Asia. However, because the relationship between the WPSH and other components of the East Asian summer monsoon ... -
Blending of Global and Regional Analyses with a Spatial Filter: Application to Typhoon Prediction over the Western North Pacific Ocean
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)blending method to merge the NCEP global analysis with the regional analysis from the WRF variational data assimilation system is implemented using a spatial filter for the purpose of initializing the Typhoon WRF (TWRF) ... -
Implementation of a Stochastic Eddy-Diffusivity/Mass-Flux Parameterization into the Navy Global Environmental Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)unified boundary layer and shallow convection parameterization based on a stochastic eddy-diffusivity/mass-flux (EDMF) approach is implemented and tested in the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM). The primary goals ... -
Tornado Warning Decisions Using Phased-Array Radar Data
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)he 2012 Phased Array Radar Innovative Sensing Experiment identified how rapidly scanned full-volumetric data captured known mesoscale processes and impacted tornado-warning lead time. Twelve forecasters from nine National ... -
20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma, Tornado: Damage Survey and Analysis
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)he tornado that affected Moore, Oklahoma, and the surrounding area on 20 May 2013 was an extreme event. It traveled 23 km and damage was up to 1.7 km wide. The tornado killed 24 people, injured over 200 others, and damaged ... -
Ensemble Typhoon Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Model in Taiwan
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)n this study, an ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecast (ETQPF) model was developed to provide typhoon rainfall forecasts for Taiwan. The ETQPF rainfall forecast is obtained by averaging the pick-out cases, ... -
Forecasting a Large Number of Tropical Cyclone Intensities around Japan Using a High-Resolution Atmosphere–Ocean Coupled Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)his work quantifies the benefits of using a high-resolution atmosphere?ocean coupled model in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts in the vicinity of Japan. To do so, a large number of high-resolution calculations ... -
Improving Lightning Cessation Guidance Using Polarimetric Radar Data
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)olarimetric radar data are used to develop lightning cessation guidance for the Cape Canaveral area of central Florida. For this purpose, 80 nonsevere thunderstorm cells in 2012, mostly during the warm season, are analyzed. ... -
Some Considerations for the Use of High-Resolution Mobile Radar Data in Tornado Intensity Determination
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)he increasing number of mobile Doppler radars used in field campaigns across the central United States has led to an increasing number of high-resolution radar datasets of strong tornadoes. There are more than a few instances ... -
Surface Wind Nowcasting in the Penghu Islands Based on Classified Typhoon Tracks and the Effects of the Central Mountain Range of Taiwan
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)he purposes of this study were to forecast the hourly typhoon wind velocity over the Penghu Islands, and to discuss the effects of the terrain of the Central Mountain Range (CMR) of Taiwan over the Penghu Islands based on ... -
Probabilistic Verification of Global and Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)robabilistic forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis have been evaluated for two samples: a near-homogeneous sample of ECMWF and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model?ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) ensemble forecasts ... -
A Preliminary Assessment of Using Spatiotemporal Lightning Patterns for a Binary Classification of Thunderstorm Mode
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)his study provides a preliminary, regional assessment of the viability of using spatiotemporal lightning patterns to classify storms into single- versus multi- and supercell storm modes. Total lightning flashes (intracloud ... -
Simulation of Summer Diurnal Circulations over the Northwest United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)uring the summer, strong surface heating combines with the terrain and land?water contrasts of the northwest United States to create a complex array of diurnal circulations. Though observational and modeling studies have ... -
Using Percentiles to Communicate Snowfall Uncertainty
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)n objective technique to determine forecast snowfall ranges consistent with the risk tolerance of users is demonstrated. The forecast snowfall ranges are based on percentiles from probability distribution functions that ... -
Day-Ahead Predictability of Complex Terrain Flows for Wind Resource Production: A Case Study of the Washoe Zephyr
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)detailed description of the meteorological conditions of the Washoe Valley (Nevada) and simulations that examine the predictability of the westerly high wind event known as the Washoe Zephyr are presented. Numerical weather ... -
Discriminating Developing versus Nondeveloping Tropical Disturbances in the Western North Pacific through Decision Tree Analysis
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)his study investigates the classification of developing and nondeveloping tropical disturbances in the western North Pacific (WNP) through the C4.5 algorithm. A decision tree is built based on this algorithm and can be ... -
Communication of Uncertainty in Temperature Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)xperimental economics is used to test whether undergraduate students presented with a temperature forecast with uncertainty information in a table and bar graph format were able to use the extra information to interpret a ... -
The Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation in Regional Spectral Model Simulations over West Africa: Sensitivities to Resolution and Cumulus Schemes
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)s a basic form of climate patterns, the diurnal cycle of precipitation (DCP) can provide a key test bed for model reliability and development. In this study, the DCP over West Africa was simulated by the National Centers ... -
Comparison of Next-Day Convection-Allowing Forecasts of Storm motion on 1- and 4-km Grids
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)his study compares next-day forecasts of storm motion from convection-allowing models with 1- and 4-km grid spacing. A tracking algorithm is used to determine the motion of discrete storms in both the model forecasts and ... -
Evaluation of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability and Moist Processes in the NOGAPS Analysis and Short-Term Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)avy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) analysis and operational forecasts are evaluated against the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim; ERAI) and satellite data, and compared with the Global ...