Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1021-1040 of 3043
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Control Parameters for Track Continuity of Cyclones Passing over the South-Central Appalachian Mountains
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he tracks of all 42 tropical cyclones (TCs) passing over the south-central Appalachians from the east or west during 1850?2011 are found to be continuous. By estimating the basic-flow and vortex Froude numbers, and the ... -
Global Ensemble Forecast Tracks for Tropical Storm Debby
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)perational-model track forecasts for Tropical Storm Debby (June 2012) diverged as much as 180°, making the National Hurricane Center forecast particularly challenging. Forecast tracks from the members of the National Centers ... -
A Real-Time Regional Forecasting System Established for the South China Sea and Its Performance in the Track Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones during 2011–13
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)real-time regional forecasting system for the South China Sea (SCS), called the Experimental Platform of Marine Environment Forecasting (EPMEF), is introduced in this paper. EPMEF consists of a regional atmosphere model, ... -
Sensitivity of 24-h Forecast Dryline Position and Structure to Boundary Layer Parameterizations in Convection-Allowing WRF Model Simulations
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)ecent NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments have emphasized the sensitivity of forecast sensible weather fields to how boundary layer processes are represented in the Weather Research and Forecasting ... -
Verifying Forecast Precipitation Type with mPING
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)n winter weather, precipitation type is a pivotal characteristic because it determines the nature of most preparations that need to be made. Decisions about how to protect critical infrastructure, such as power lines and ... -
Impact of Loss of U.S. Microwave and Radio Occultation Observations in Operational Numerical Weather Prediction in Support of the U.S. Data Gap Mitigation Activities
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)s the U.S. polar-orbiting satellites NOAA-15, -18, and -19 and NASA?s Aqua satellite reach the ends of their lives, there may be a loss in redundancy between their microwave (MW) soundings, and the Advanced Technology ... -
A Comparison between a Generalized Beta–Advection Model and a Classical Beta–Advection Model in Predicting and Understanding Unusual Typhoon Tracks in Eastern China Seas
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)total of 163 tropical cyclones (TCs) occurred in the eastern China seas during 1979?2011 with four types of tracks: left turning, right turning, straight moving, and irregular. The left-turning type is unusual and hard to ... -
An Observational Study of the Effects of Dry Air Produced in Dissipating Convective Storms on the Predictability of Severe Weather
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)his paper documents features that led to major forecast errors on the 12?24-h time scale in the nature and location of severe weather in the southern plains on 30 May 2012. Evidence is presented that the forecast errors ... -
Impact of Microphysics Parameterizations on Simulations of the 27 October 2010 Great Salt Lake–Effect Snowstorm
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)imulations of moist convection at cloud-permitting grid spacings are sensitive to the parameterization of microphysical processes, posing a challenge for operational weather prediction. Here, the Weather Research and ... -
The Potential Utility of High-Resolution Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis for Observation Placement during Weak Flow in Complex Terrain
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)xpansion in the availability of relocatable near-surface atmospheric observing sensors introduces the question of where placement maximizes gain in forecast accuracy. As one possible method of addressing observation ... -
Examining Deep Convective Cloud Evolution Using Total Lightning, WSR-88D, and GOES-14 Super Rapid Scan Datasets
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-14 (GOES-14) Imager operated in 1-min Super Rapid Scan Operations for GOES-R (SRSOR) mode during summer and fall of 2012 to emulate the high temporal resolution sampling ... -
Exploring Lightning Jump Characteristics
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)his study is concerned with the characteristics of storms exhibiting an abrupt temporal increase in the total lightning flash rate [i.e., lightning jump (LJ)]. An automated storm tracking method is used to identify storm ... -
Climatology and Ensemble Predictions of Nonconvective High Wind Events in the New York City Metropolitan Region
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)amaging wind events not associated with severe convective storms or tropical cyclones can cause significant problems with transportation, infrastructure, and public safety over the northeastern United States. These ... -
Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Reforecasts over the Southeastern United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)OAA?s second-generation reforecasts are approximately consistent with the operational version of the 2012 NOAA Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). The reforecasts allow verification to be performed across a multidecadal ... -
A Revised Tornado Definition and Changes in Tornado Taxonomy
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)he tornado taxonomy presented by Agee and Jones is revised to account for the new definition of a tornado provided by the American Meteorological Society (AMS) in October 2013, resulting in the elimination of shear-driven ... -
A Polarimetric and Microphysical Investigation of the Northeast Blizzard of 8–9 February 2013
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)n 8?9 February 2013, the northeastern United States experienced a historic winter weather event ranking among the top five worst blizzards in the region. Heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions occurred from northern New ... -
An Assessment of Numerical Weather Prediction–Derived Low-Cloud-Base Height Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)s demand for flight operations in Antarctica grows, accurate weather forecasting of cloud properties such as extent, cloud base, and cloud-top altitude becomes essential. The primary aims of this work are to ascertain ... -
Precipitation Forecasting with Gamma Distribution Models for Gridded Precipitation Events in Eastern Oklahoma and Northwestern Arkansas
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)n elegant and easy to implement probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting model that can be used to estimate the probability of exceedance (POE) is presented. The model was built using precipitation data collected ... -
Verification of the New Nonhydrostatic Multiscale Model on the B Grid (NMMB): A View on Global Predictability of Surface Parameters
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)global verification of temperature, dewpoint temperature, and wind speed for the new Nonhydrostatic Multiscale Model on the B Grid (NMMB) is computed for a 3-yr period (2010?12) using over 9000 weather stations. The raw ... -
Three-Dimensional Circulation Structure of Summer Heavy Rainfall in Central North China
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)ased on daily rainfall observations and Japanese 25-year Reanalysis Project data during ~1981?2010, a three-dimensional circulation structure that formed before heavy summer rainfall in central north China (CNC) is revealed ...