Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1001-1020 of 3043
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Improvements in the Probabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification with Passive Microwave Observations
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Ocean basins is examined here using a series of logistic regression models trained on environmental and ... -
Time-Expanded Sampling for Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation Applied to Conventional and Satellite Observations
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he time-expanded sampling (TES) method, designed to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of ensemble-based data assimilation and subsequent forecast with reduced ensemble size, is tested with conventional and satellite ... -
Tropical Cyclogenesis Detection in the North Pacific Using the Deviation Angle Variance Technique
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he deviation angle variance technique (DAV-T) for genesis detection is applied in the western and eastern North Pacific basins. The DAV-T quantifies the axisymmetric organization of cloud clusters using infrared brightness ... -
Polarimetric Radar Observations from a Waterspout-Producing Thunderstorm
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)family of four waterspouts was produced by a convective cell over western Lake Michigan on 12 September 2013. This storm initiated along a boundary north of a mesolow in a low-level cold-air advection regime, and developed ... -
Assessment and Implications of NCEP Stage IV Quantitative Precipitation Estimates for Product Intercomparisons
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) stage IV quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) are used in many studies for intercomparisons including those for satellite QPEs. An overview of the National ... -
A Skillful Prediction Model for Winter NAO Based on Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Eurasian Snow Cover
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)new statistical forecast scheme, referred to as scheme 1, is developed using observed autumn Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and Eurasian snow cover in the preceding autumn to predict the upcoming winter North ... -
Impacts of Phased-Array Radar Data on Forecaster Performance during Severe Hail and Wind Events
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he ongoing Phased Array Radar Innovative Sensing Experiment (PARISE) investigates the impacts of higher-temporal-resolution radar data on the warning decision process of NWS forecasters. Twelve NWS forecasters participated ... -
The 2012 Triply Nested, High-Resolution Operational Version of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF): Track and Intensity Forecast Verifications
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF) was operationally implemented with a 27-km outer domain and a 9-km moving nest in 2007 (H007) as a tropical cyclone forecast model for the North Atlantic and eastern ... -
Progress and Developments of Downburst Prediction Applications of GOES
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) has developed and evaluated a suite of products that assess convective storm?generated ... -
The Impact of Hurricane Force Wind Fields on the North Pacific Ocean Environment
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)his study analyzes QuikSCAT surface wind data over the North Pacific Ocean to document the distribution of captured fetches in extratropical cyclones that produced hurricane force (HF) wind fields from January 2003 through ... -
A Review of Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes and Their Sensitivity in Simulating Southeastern U.S. Cold Season Severe Weather Environments
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he representation of turbulent mixing within the lower troposphere is needed to accurately portray the vertical thermodynamic and kinematic profiles of the atmosphere in mesoscale model forecasts. For mesoscale models, ... -
CORRIGENDUM
(American Meteorological Society, 2014) -
Evaluating Forecast Impact of Assimilating Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) Radiances with a Regional Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation System
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)his study examines the impact of assimilating Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) radiances in a limited-area ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation system. Two experiments spanning 11 August?13 September 2008 were ... -
The Relationship between Automated Low-Level Velocity Calculations from the WSR-88D and Maximum Tornado Intensity Determined from Damage Surveys
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he relationship between automated low-level velocity derived from WSR-88D severe storm algorithms and two groups of tornado intensity were evaluated using a 4-yr climatology of 1975 tornado events spawned from 1655 supercells ... -
Development of Anomalous Temperature Regimes over the Southeastern United States: Synoptic Behavior and Role of Low-Frequency Modes
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)uring winter, anomalous temperature regimes (ATRs), which include cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) and warm waves (WWs), have important impacts in the southeastern United States. This study provides a synoptic?dynamic characterization ... -
Evaluation of WRF Cloud Microphysics Schemes Using Radar Observations
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) implemented a 10-yr project to develop its own global model (GM) by 2020. To reflect the complex topography and unique weather characteristics of the Korean Peninsula, a ... -
Statistical–Dynamical Seasonal Forecast for Tropical Cyclones Affecting New York State
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)his study attempts, for the first time, to predict the annual number of tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting New York State (NYS), as part of the effort of the New York State Resiliency Institute for Storms and Emergencies ... -
Assimilation of Tropical Cyclone Track and Wind Radius Data with an Ensemble Kalman Filter
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)mproving tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts is one of the most important issues in meteorology, but TC intensity forecasting is a challenging task. Because the lack of observations near TCs usually results in degraded accuracy ... -
Observations of the 9 June 2009 Dissipating Supercell from VORTEX2
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)n 9 June 2009, the second Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX2) captured a unique dataset of dense observations throughout the lifetime of an isolated supercell, including its demise. ... -
An Evaluation of Analog-Based Postprocessing Methods across Several Variables and Forecast Models
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)ecently, two analog-based postprocessing methods were demonstrated to reduce the systematic and random errors from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model predictions of 10-m wind speed over the central United States. ...