Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 981-1000 of 3043
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Potential Use of Transport and Dispersion Model Ensembles for Forecasting Applications
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)sing ensembles to improve the simulation of plume dispersion is becoming a more common practice. One of the biggest challenges in creating ensembles is developing the appropriate member selection process to get the most ... -
A Multiscale Overview of the El Reno, Oklahoma, Tornadic Supercell of 31 May 2013
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)n 31 May 2013 a broad, intense, cyclonic tornado and a narrower, weaker companion anticyclonic tornado formed in a supercell in central Oklahoma. This paper discusses the synoptic- and mesoscale environment in which the ... -
A New Statistical Model for Predicting Seasonal North Atlantic Hurricane Activity
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)tatistical, dynamical, and statistical?dynamical hybrid models have been developed in past decades for the seasonal prediction of North Atlantic hurricane numbers. These models? prediction skills show considerable decadal ... -
Application of the WRF-LETKF Data Assimilation System over Southern South America: Sensitivity to Model Physics
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)mproving the initial conditions of short-range numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is one of the main goals of the meteorological community. Development of data assimilation and ensemble forecast systems is essential ... -
Incorporating the Effects of Moisture into a Dynamical Parameter: Moist Vorticity and Moist Divergence
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)roperly including moisture effects into a dynamical parameter can significantly increase the parameter?s ability to diagnose heavy rain locations. The relative humidity?based weighting approach used to extend the moist ... -
Forecasting Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Basin Using the NCEP Operational HWRF Model: Model Upgrades and Evaluation of Real-Time Performance in 2013
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)his study presents evaluation of real-time performance of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) modeling system upgraded and implemented in 2013 ... -
31 May 2013 El Reno Tornadoes: Advantages of Rapid-Scan Phased-Array Radar Data from a Warning Forecaster’s Perspective
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)n 31 May 2013, a supercell produced a tornado rated as 3 on the enhanced Fujita scale (EF3) near El Reno, Oklahoma, which was sampled by the S-band phased-array radar (PAR) at the National Weather Radar Testbed in Norman, ... -
After a Decade Are Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Gale Force Wind Radii Forecasts Now Skillful?
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he National Hurricane Center (NHC) has a long history of forecasting the radial extent of gale force or 34-knot (kt; where 1 kt = 0.51 m s?1) winds for tropical cyclones in their area of responsibility. These are referred ... -
A Statistical Analysis on the Dependence of Tropical Cyclone Intensification Rate on the Storm Intensity and Size in the North Atlantic
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he dependence of tropical cyclone (TC) intensification rate IR on storm intensity and size was statistically analyzed for North Atlantic TCs during 1988?2012. The results show that IR is positively (negatively) correlated ... -
Insight into the Kinematic and Microphysical Processes that Control Lightning Jumps
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)detailed case study analysis of four thunderstorms is performed using polarimetric and multi-Doppler capabilities to provide specificity on the physical and dynamical drivers behind lightning jumps. The main differences ... -
Applying a Divisive Clustering Algorithm to a Large Ensemble for Medium-Range Forecasting at the Weather Prediction Center
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)his article explores the potential advantages of using a clustering approach to distill information contained within a large ensemble of forecasts in the medium-range time frame. A divisive clustering algorithm based on ... -
Forecasting Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Basin Using the NCEP Operational HWRF: Real-Time Implementation in 2012
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)his study documents the recent efforts of the hurricane modeling team at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction?s (NCEP) Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) in implementing the operational Hurricane Weather ... -
Global Distribution of the Skill of Tropical Cyclone Activity Forecasts on Short- to Medium-Range Time Scales
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)perational global medium-range ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity (genesis plus the subsequent track) are systematically evaluated to understand the skill of the state-of-the-art ensembles in forecasting ... -
Improvement of Statistical Postprocessing Using GEFS Reforecast Information
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) generated a multidecadal (from 1985 to present) ensemble reforecast database for the 2012 version of the Global Ensemble ... -
An Analysis of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning in China during 2010–13
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data being detected by the China Lightning Detection Network between 2010 and 2013 are employed to gain insight into the spatial and temporal distribution of CG lightning in China. There ... -
An Initial Assessment of Radar Data Assimilation on Warm Season Rainfall Forecasts for Use in Hydrologic Models
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he effect of introducing radar data assimilation into the WRF Model to improve high-resolution rainfall forecasts that are used for flash flood forecasting is analyzed. The authors selected 12 heavy rainfall events and ... -
Hurricane Wind–Pressure Relationship and Eyewall Replacement Cycles
(American Meteorological Society, 2014)he relationship between minimum central surface pressure and the maximum sustained surface wind in tropical cyclones has been studied for many years, motivated by the fact that minimum pressure is generally easier to ... -
Assessment of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model’s Ability to Predict Mesoscale Convective Systems Using Object-Based Evaluation
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)n object-based verification technique that keys off the radar-retrieved vertically integrated liquid (VIL) is used to evaluate how well the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) predicted mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) ... -
Diagnosing the Conditional Probability of Tornado Damage Rating Using Environmental and Radar Attributes
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)adar-identified convective modes, peak low-level rotational velocities, and near-storm environmental data were assigned to a sample of tornadoes reported in the contiguous United States during 2009?13. The tornado segment ... -
Antecedent Atmospheric Conditions Related to Squall-Line Initiation over the Northern Coast of Brazil in July
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he antecedent atmospheric conditions at midmorning (1200 UTC or 0900 LST) related to subsequent squall-line (SL) initiation in the late afternoon or early evening over the northern coast of Brazil (NCB) were obtained for ...