Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 961-980 of 3043
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Comparison and Combination of Regional and Global Ensemble Prediction Systems for Probabilistic Predictions of Hub-Height Wind Speed
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he objective of this paper is to compare probabilistic 100-m wind speed forecasts, which are relevant for wind energy applications, from different regional and global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) at six measurement ... -
Reassessing the Use of Inner-Core Hot Towers to Predict Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he hot tower (HT) in the inner core plays an important role in tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI). With the help of Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data and the Statistical Hurricane Intensity ... -
Capabilities and Limitations of Convection-Permitting WRF Simulations of Lake-Effect Systems over the Great Salt Lake
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)lthough previous studies suggest that the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model can produce physically realistic banded Great Salt Lake?effect (GSLE) precipitation features, the accuracy and reliability of these ... -
Numerical Simulations of Typhoon Morakot (2009) Using a Multiply Nested Tropical Cyclone Prediction Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)igh-impact Typhoon Morakot (2009) was investigated using a multiply nested regional tropical cyclone prediction model. In the numerical simulations, the horizontal grid spacing, cumulus parameterizations, and microphysical ... -
Object-Based Evaluation of a Numerical Weather Prediction Model’s Performance through Forecast Storm Characteristic Analysis
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)raditional pixel-versus-pixel forecast evaluation scores such as the critical success index (CSI) provide a simple way to compare the performances of different forecasts; however, they offer little information on how to ... -
A Real-Time Convection-Allowing Ensemble Prediction System Initialized by Mesoscale Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)n May and June 2013, the National Center for Atmospheric Research produced real-time 48-h convection-allowing ensemble forecasts at 3-km horizontal grid spacing using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in ... -
Extended-Range Forecasts of Areal-Averaged Rainfall over Saudi Arabia
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he climate of Saudi Arabia is arid?semiarid with infrequent but sometimes intense rainfall, which can cause flooding. Interannual and intraseasonal precipitation variability in the region is related to ENSO and MJO tropical ... -
Detection of the Presence of Tornadoes at the Center of Mesocyclones Using Simulated Doppler Velocity Measurements
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)imulations were conducted to investigate the detection of the Doppler velocity tornado signature (TS) and tornadic vortex signature (TVS) when a tornado is located at the center of the parent mesocyclone. Whether the ... -
A Consensus Forecast for Tropical Cyclone Gale Wind Radii
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been forecasting gale force wind radii for many years, and more recently (starting in 2004) began routine postanalysis or ?best tracking? of the maximum radial extent of gale [34 knots ... -
Analysis of Thundersnow Storms over Northern Colorado
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)ightning flashes during snowstorms occur infrequently compared to warm-season convection. The rarity of such thundersnow events poses an additional hazard because the lightning is unexpected. Because cloud electrification ... -
The Impact of Supplemental Dropwindsonde Data on the Structure and Intensity of Tropical Storm Karen (2013) in the NCEP Global Forecast System
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he impact of assimilating synoptic surveillance dropwindsonde data on the analysis and forecast of the structure and intensity of Tropical Storm Karen (2013) was examined. Data-denial experiments were conducted using the ... -
The Subtropical Jet Stream Delivers the Coup de Grâce to Hurricane Felicia (2009)
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he NOAA Gulfstream IV (G-IV) routinely deploys global positioning system dropwindsondes (GPS sondes) to sample the environment around hurricanes that threaten landfall in the United States and neighboring countries. Part ... -
On the Impact of NWP Model Background on Very High–Resolution Analyses in Complex Terrain
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he capability to accurately analyze the spatial distribution of temperature and wind at very high spatial (2.5?1 km) and temporal (60?5 min) resolutions is of interest in many modern techniques (e.g., nowcasting and ... -
Impacts of a Storm Merger on the 24 May 2011 El Reno, Oklahoma, Tornadic Supercell
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)n 24 May 2011, a tornadic supercell (the El Reno, Oklahoma, storm) produced tornadoes rated as category 3 and 5 events on the enhanced Fujita scale (EF3 and EF5, respectively) during a severe weather outbreak. The transition ... -
Fog Forecasting for Melbourne Airport Using a Bayesian Decision Network
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)og events occur at Melbourne Airport, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, approximately 12 times each year. Unforecast events are costly to the aviation industry, cause disruption, and are a safety risk. Thus, there is a need ... -
Mesoscale and Synoptic Environment in Three Orographically Enhanced Rain Events on the Coast of Santa Catarina (Brazil)
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)n this study three cases of extreme rainfall events are analyzed in Florianopolis, Santa Catarina (SC), on Brazil?s coast, lying between the mountains and the South Atlantic Ocean in southeastern South America. The largest ... -
Significant-Hail-Producing Storms in Finland: Convective-Storm Environment and Mode
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he environmental characteristics and convective mode of significant hailstorms (those storms producing reported hail 5 cm or larger in diameter) in Finland during 1972?2011 were analyzed. Altogether, 23 significant-hail-day ... -
Investigation of the Effects of Considering Balloon Drift Information on Radiosonde Data Assimilation Using the Four-Dimensional Variational Method
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)ffects of balloon drift information (i.e., position and elapsed ascent time of the balloon) on the assimilation of radiosonde observations are investigated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and its ... -
Thermodynamic Observations and Flux Calculations of the Tropical Cyclone Surface Layer within the Context of Potential Intensity
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)hermodynamic variables including temperature, humidity, and equivalent potential temperature are obtained and calculated from 88 buoy and C-MAN time series of 38 Atlantic hurricanes. Radial profiles of these variables are ... -
Evaluation of a Probabilistic Forecasting Methodology for Severe Convective Weather in the 2014 Hazardous Weather Testbed
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)proposed new method for hazard identification and prediction was evaluated with forecasters in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hazardous Weather Testbed during 2014. This method combines hazard-following ...