Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 941-960 of 3043
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OBEST: An Observation-Based Ensemble Subsetting Technique for Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)n observation-based ensemble subsetting technique (OBEST) is developed for tropical cyclone track prediction in which a subset of members from either a single- or multimodel ensemble is selected based on the distance from ... -
Through the Eyes of the Experts: Meteorologists’ Perceptions of the Probability of Precipitation
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)rior surveys of the public indicated that a variety of meanings and interpretations exist about the probability of precipitation (PoP). Does the same variety of meanings for the PoP exist among members of the professional ... -
Implementation in the NCEP GFS of a Hybrid Eddy-Diffusivity Mass-Flux (EDMF) Boundary Layer Parameterization with Dissipative Heating and Modified Stable Boundary Layer Mixing
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he current operational eddy-diffusivity countergradient (EDCG) planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme in the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) tends to underestimate the PBL growth in the convective boundary layer (CBL). ... -
On Contrasting Ensemble Simulations of Two Great Plains Bow Echoes
(American Meteorological Society, 2016)ow echo structures, a subset of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), are often poorly forecast within deterministic numerical weather prediction model simulations. Among other things, this may be due to the inherent low ... -
Analyzing Vortex Winds in Radar-Observed Tornadic Mesocyclones for Nowcast Applications
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)computationally efficient method is developed to analyze the vortex wind fields of radar-observed mesocyclones. The method has the following features. (i) The analysis is performed in a nested domain over the mesocyclone ... -
Three Cases of a New Multichannel Threshold Technique to Detect Fog/Low Stratus during Nighttime Using SNPP Data
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he day?night band (DNB) low-light-level visible sensor, mounted on the Suomi?National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite, can measure visible radiances from the earth and atmosphere (solar/lunar reflection, and ... -
Cloud-Resolving Typhoon Rainfall Ensemble Forecasts for Taiwan with Large Domain and Extended Range through Time-Lagged Approach
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)n this study, the performance of a new ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) system for Taiwan, with a cloud-resolving grid spacing of 2.5 km, a large domain of 1860 km ? 1360 km, and an extended range of 8 ... -
A Climatology of Southern Appalachian Cold-Air Damming
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)30-yr climatology (1981?2010) of cold-air damming (CAD) events in the southern Appalachians was conducted using hourly surface observations and North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data. Analysis of the spatial ... -
Storm-Scale Data Assimilation and Ensemble Forecasting with the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System. Part I: Radar Data Experiments
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)his first part of a two-part study on storm-scale radar and satellite data assimilation provides an overview of a multicase study conducted as part of the NOAA Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) project. The NSSL Experimental WoF ... -
Predictability of Frontal Waves and Cyclones
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he statistical properties and skill in predictions of objectively identified and tracked cyclonic features (frontal waves and cyclones) are examined in the 15-day version of the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble ... -
Colorado Plowable Hailstorms: Synoptic Weather, Radar, and Lightning Characteristics
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)ynoptic weather, S-band dual-polarization radar, and total lightning observations are analyzed from four thunderstorms that produced ?plowable? hail accumulations of 15?60 cm in localized areas of the Colorado Front Range. ... -
Diagnosis of Track Forecast Errors for Tropical Cyclone Rita (2005) Using GEFS Reforecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)nalysis and diagnosis of the track forecasts for Tropical Cyclone (TC) Rita (2005) from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) reforecast dataset is presented. The operational numerical weather prediction guidance and ... -
Weighted Analog Technique for Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)situation-dependent intensity and intensity spread prediction technique for the Atlantic called the Weighted Analog Intensity Atlantic (WAIA) is developed using the same procedures as for a similar technique for the western ... -
A Systematic Classification Investigation of Rapid Intensification of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones with the SHIPS Database
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)n hopes of better understanding the rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones, the classification technique as a data mining process is used in this mining experiment. The mining results are expected to increase ... -
Ensemble Forecast Uncertainty of the 1 December 2011 Wasatch Windstorm
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)downslope windstorm on 1 December 2011 led to considerable damage along a narrow 50-km swath at the western base of the Wasatch Mountains in northern Utah. Operational forecasts issued by the Salt Lake City National Weather ... -
Evaluating Environmental Impacts on Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Predictability Utilizing Statistical Models
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)ew multi-lead-time versions of three statistical probabilistic tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) prediction models are developed for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. These are the linear-discriminant ... -
The Validity of Dvorak Intensity Change Constraints for Tropical Cyclones
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he Dvorak technique is used operationally worldwide for tropical cyclone intensity analysis. This study tests Dvorak intensity change constraints, using a database of simultaneous aircraft and satellite fixes for tropical ... -
Calibrated Forecasts of Extreme Windstorms Using the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and Shift of Tails (SOT)
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)his study presents a method that improves extreme windstorm early warning in regards to past events that hit France during the last 30 years. From a 21-member ensemble forecast, the extreme forecast index (EFI) and the ... -
Assessment of FY-3A and FY-3B MWHS Observations
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)he Fengyun-3 series of satellites (FY-3) began in May 2008 with the launch of FY-3A. The onboard Microwave Humidity Sounders (MWHSs) provide vertical information about water vapor, which is important for numerical weather ... -
An Evaluation of Advanced Dvorak Technique–Derived Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimates during Extratropical Transition Using Synthetic Satellite Imagery
(American Meteorological Society, 2015)t is known that both Dvorak technique and advanced Dvorak technique?derived intensity estimates for tropical cyclones during extratropical transition are less reliable because the empirical relationships between cloud ...