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    Modeling Regional Hurricane Evacuation Events: Calibration and Validation

    Source: Natural Hazards Review:;2015:;Volume ( 016 ):;issue: 004
    Author:
    Thomas Montz
    ,
    Zhao Zhang
    DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000181
    Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
    Abstract: Calibration and validation of traffic models is a necessary step to better fit model output to real-world conditions. Presently, there has been little research in this particular area of evacuation modeling because of a lack of observed traffic data from evacuation events. This paper provides a general framework for the calibration and validation of regional-scale evacuation models. The authors then present a case study in which calibration and validation is carried out for an evacuation model using observed evacuation data. The case study presents a traffic simulation model that was developed to analyze traffic conditions associated with a regional-level mass emergency evacuation for southeastern Louisiana, including New Orleans and Baton Rouge. The case study focuses on two important aspects of the model: traffic assignment calibration and network flow validation. The calibration procedure attempted to determine parameter values that would result in the most realistic traffic assignment by comparing assignment results with real-world traffic flows. The validation procedure revealed the importance of including background traffic in the simulation model.
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      Modeling Regional Hurricane Evacuation Events: Calibration and Validation

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/81059
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    contributor authorThomas Montz
    contributor authorZhao Zhang
    date accessioned2017-05-08T22:27:55Z
    date available2017-05-08T22:27:55Z
    date copyrightNovember 2015
    date issued2015
    identifier other45837185.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl/handle/yetl/81059
    description abstractCalibration and validation of traffic models is a necessary step to better fit model output to real-world conditions. Presently, there has been little research in this particular area of evacuation modeling because of a lack of observed traffic data from evacuation events. This paper provides a general framework for the calibration and validation of regional-scale evacuation models. The authors then present a case study in which calibration and validation is carried out for an evacuation model using observed evacuation data. The case study presents a traffic simulation model that was developed to analyze traffic conditions associated with a regional-level mass emergency evacuation for southeastern Louisiana, including New Orleans and Baton Rouge. The case study focuses on two important aspects of the model: traffic assignment calibration and network flow validation. The calibration procedure attempted to determine parameter values that would result in the most realistic traffic assignment by comparing assignment results with real-world traffic flows. The validation procedure revealed the importance of including background traffic in the simulation model.
    publisherAmerican Society of Civil Engineers
    titleModeling Regional Hurricane Evacuation Events: Calibration and Validation
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume16
    journal issue4
    journal titleNatural Hazards Review
    identifier doi10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000181
    treeNatural Hazards Review:;2015:;Volume ( 016 ):;issue: 004
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian