Modeling Regional Hurricane Evacuation Events: Calibration and Validation

Abstract

Calibration and validation of traffic models is a necessary step to better fit model output to real-world conditions. Presently, there has been little research in this particular area of evacuation modeling because of a lack of observed traffic data from evacuation events. This paper provides a general framework for the calibration and validation of regional-scale evacuation models. The authors then present a case study in which calibration and validation is carried out for an evacuation model using observed evacuation data. The case study presents a traffic simulation model that was developed to analyze traffic conditions associated with a regional-level mass emergency evacuation for southeastern Louisiana, including New Orleans and Baton Rouge. The case study focuses on two important aspects of the model: traffic assignment calibration and network flow validation. The calibration procedure attempted to determine parameter values that would result in the most realistic traffic assignment by comparing assignment results with real-world traffic flows. The validation procedure revealed the importance of including background traffic in the simulation model.