Probabilistic Analysis of Circular Tunnels in Homogeneous Soil Using Response Surface Methodology

Abstract

A probabilistic analysis of a shallow circular tunnel driven by a pressurized shield in a frictional and/or cohesive soil is presented. Both the ultimate limit state (ULS) and serviceability limit state (SLS) are considered in the analysis. Two deterministic models based on numerical simulations are used. The first one computes the tunnel collapse pressure and the second one calculates the maximal settlement due to the applied face pressure. The response surface methodology is utilized for the assessment of the Hasofer-Lind reliability index for both limit states. Only the soil shear strength parameters are considered as random variables while studying the ULS. However, for the SLS, both the shear strength parameters and Young’s modulus of the soil are considered as random variables. For ULS, the assumption of uncorrelated variables was found conservative in comparison to the one of negatively correlated parameters. For both ULS and SLS, the assumption of nonnormal distribution for the random variables has almost no effect on the reliability index for the practical range of values of the applied pressure. Finally, it was found that the system reliability depends on both limit states. Notice however that the contribution of ULS to the system reliability was not significant. Thus, SLS can be used alone for the assessment of the tunnel reliability.