Reliability Evaluation of Earth Slopes

Abstract

The reliability analysis of earth slopes is considered. For slope safety assessment, the first-order reliability method is employed for estimating the probability of failure or reliability index. Since the failure of any slip surfaces implies failure of the slope, the slope is considered as a series system. The system aspect of the slope in the reliability analysis is dealt with by defining a limit state of the system as a function of the minimum of the ratio of the shear strength to the mobilized shear strength for each of all potential slip surfaces. Such a ratio for a given slip surface is evaluated using the extended generalized method of slices. The reliability analysis procedure described is applied to example slopes to illustrate the impact of the probability distribution type, and the spatial variability of the soil properties on the probability of failure of the slopes.