Mixed Uncertainty Analysis in Pressure Systems Inspection Applications

Abstract

Pressure systems contain hazardous fluids within industrial processes. Inspection plays a vital role in managing the reliability of these safety-critical systems. It allows engineers to identify, characterize, and manage degradation of pressure vessels, piping, and associated equipment to prevent failure and the associated consequences on people and the environment. Mixed uncertainty can affect decision-making in at least three distinct aspects of inspection practice: inspection planning, inspection data analysis, and integrity assessment. Despite this, the inspection engineering discipline lacks methodologies for handling both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties within analyses, which could be expensively misleading. This paper demonstrates the benefits of applying mixed uncertainty quantification and analysis techniques to pressure vessel inspection and integrity assessment through a worked example, which shows how the epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in inspection data can be represented using an imprecise probability approach. The limitations of empirical data are shown to pose challenges to implementing these techniques in practice, and so practical requirements for a framework for implementing uncertainty analysis methods in inspection are proposed. These include, for example, the ability to generate meaningful yet conservative results from even a limited amount of poor-quality data, while allowing results to be bounded more narrowly as more data is collected, findings from better data are pooled, or engineering judgment and assumptions are applied.