Extreme Heat in the Caribbean: Impacts on Wellbeing and Buildings Energy Infrastructure—The 2023 Summer Case

Abstract

The summer of 2023 in Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands witnessed an unprecedented surge in extreme heat, surpassing historical norms prompting the analysis of the broader implications for the Caribbean region. This study presents the initial analysis of this remarkable heatwave, the broader context of global climate change, and its potential impacts on people's well-being and energy demand. Historical and 2023 summer daily maximum heat index (HI) are calculated using local stations and regional gridded data. The results show that summer 2023 exhibited a significant departure from the historical climate. For about 70% of summer days, HI values above 100 °F were recorded. It was found that the extreme summer is part of a broader regional pattern. The summer of 2023 recorded higher sea surface temperatures with anomalies above 2.07 °C and the weakening of the Azores High resulting in reduced wind speed in the region. This diminished the cooling effect associated with cooler maritime air aiding the stagnation of air masses over the region. The analysis sets a threshold of HI of 103 °F to assess human exposure. A significant portion of the region's population, especially in urban areas, was exposed to HI above this threshold. Concurrently, the intense heat led to increased energy demands, with about a 25% increase in peak energy demand in buildings. Per capita consumption exceeded 200 kWh/month for cooling and human comfort and anomalies adding around 15 kWh/month. The study is a step forward in developing adaptive strategies to safeguard vulnerable communities due to global warming-induced extreme events.