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    Advances in the Reliability Analysis of Coherent Systems under Limited Data with Confidence Boxes

    Source: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering:;2025:;Volume ( 011 ):;issue: 001::page 04024074-1
    Author:
    Adolphus Lye
    ,
    Wasin Vechgama
    ,
    Mohamed Sallak
    ,
    Sebastien Destercke
    ,
    Scott Ferson
    ,
    Sicong Xiao
    DOI: 10.1061/AJRUA6.RUENG-1380
    Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
    Abstract: This paper proposes an uncertainty quantification framework that enables the analyst to compute statistically calibrated confidence bounds of the reliability of coherent systems, even in the case in which the data are limited. More specifically, we propose to use confidence boxes to do so. Such a proposal is motivated by the fact that confidence boxes offer a guarantee on statistical performances regardless of the amount of available data through repeated use, which is especially useful when considering the fact that reliability or failure data for the reliability analysis are often limited in availability. The aim of this work is to provide tools that allow the analyst to obtain the true confidence intervals over the system failure and reliability at any desired level. This paper first reviews the basics of confidence boxes and reliability analysis before providing general computation tools. From this, a mathematical formalism is presented that relates the component configurations with the corresponding Boolean logic expressions to perform a forward propagation of the confidence boxes under varying dependencies between the components. The feasibility of the proposed framework is then demonstrated through three case studies involving complex systems under varying engineering settings in the form of the (1) pressurized tank system, (2) Training, Research, Isotopes, General Atomics (TRIGA) nuclear research reactor cooling system, and (3) bridge structure system. Through case studies, the validity of our studies is empirically shown, and an evaluation of the strengths and limitations of the proposed framework is presented. Finally, this paper provides perspectives on the future research works that can be undertaken. To provide a better understanding of the proposed framework, open R source code to reproduce the results and perform other related studies is available on GitHub.
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      Advances in the Reliability Analysis of Coherent Systems under Limited Data with Confidence Boxes

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    • ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering

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    contributor authorAdolphus Lye
    contributor authorWasin Vechgama
    contributor authorMohamed Sallak
    contributor authorSebastien Destercke
    contributor authorScott Ferson
    contributor authorSicong Xiao
    date accessioned2025-04-20T10:26:35Z
    date available2025-04-20T10:26:35Z
    date copyright10/22/2024 12:00:00 AM
    date issued2025
    identifier otherAJRUA6.RUENG-1380.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4304731
    description abstractThis paper proposes an uncertainty quantification framework that enables the analyst to compute statistically calibrated confidence bounds of the reliability of coherent systems, even in the case in which the data are limited. More specifically, we propose to use confidence boxes to do so. Such a proposal is motivated by the fact that confidence boxes offer a guarantee on statistical performances regardless of the amount of available data through repeated use, which is especially useful when considering the fact that reliability or failure data for the reliability analysis are often limited in availability. The aim of this work is to provide tools that allow the analyst to obtain the true confidence intervals over the system failure and reliability at any desired level. This paper first reviews the basics of confidence boxes and reliability analysis before providing general computation tools. From this, a mathematical formalism is presented that relates the component configurations with the corresponding Boolean logic expressions to perform a forward propagation of the confidence boxes under varying dependencies between the components. The feasibility of the proposed framework is then demonstrated through three case studies involving complex systems under varying engineering settings in the form of the (1) pressurized tank system, (2) Training, Research, Isotopes, General Atomics (TRIGA) nuclear research reactor cooling system, and (3) bridge structure system. Through case studies, the validity of our studies is empirically shown, and an evaluation of the strengths and limitations of the proposed framework is presented. Finally, this paper provides perspectives on the future research works that can be undertaken. To provide a better understanding of the proposed framework, open R source code to reproduce the results and perform other related studies is available on GitHub.
    publisherAmerican Society of Civil Engineers
    titleAdvances in the Reliability Analysis of Coherent Systems under Limited Data with Confidence Boxes
    typeJournal Article
    journal volume11
    journal issue1
    journal titleASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
    identifier doi10.1061/AJRUA6.RUENG-1380
    journal fristpage04024074-1
    journal lastpage04024074-19
    page19
    treeASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering:;2025:;Volume ( 011 ):;issue: 001
    contenttypeFulltext
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