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    Seaport Hazardous Cargo Loading and Unloading Risk Assessment Using Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Sets and Bayesian Networks

    Source: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering:;2024:;Volume ( 010 ):;issue: 001::page 04023065-1
    Author:
    Rafi Ullah Khan
    ,
    Jingbo Yin
    ,
    Faluk Shair Mustafa
    ,
    Siqi Wang
    DOI: 10.1061/AJRUA6.RUENG-1120
    Publisher: ASCE
    Abstract: Manifold calamitous consequences of seaport hazardous cargo accidents have raised grave trepidation over the safe management of hazardous cargo. Fewer investigations have aimed at the multifaceted risk associated with intricate seaport hazardous cargo loading and unloading operations. To that end, this study analyzes the multifaceted risks associated with seaport hazardous cargo loading and unloading operations. Bayesian network (BN) is employed and amalgamated with interval type-2 fuzzy sets to account for intricacies and uncertainties concomitant to the causation factors. Power average operator on aggregation of domain expert opinions, and experts scores in quantifying conditional probability tables are employed to further augment the viability and diagnosis accuracy of the analysis. The results reveal policy and regulations failures, errors and violations, and communications issues as the prominent accident causation factors. To identify the critical accident causation factors, a sensitivity analysis was performed. Based on these insights, the study proposes practical applications in terms of development and abidance of rules, resource upkeeping, and critical operations to mitigate the risk of seaport hazardous cargo loading and unloading operations. The study’s outcomes propose practical measures to mitigate risks effectively. Adhering to safety regulations is paramount, especially when handling petrochemicals and ammonium nitrate. Staff must diligently follow rules to prevent negligence or authority misuse. Monitoring personnel qualifications and experienced supervisors play a vital role in promptly identifying threats. Consistent checks and maintenance of technology, infrastructure, and equipment are indispensable. Ship positioning entails assessing water depth and vessel draught. Secure mooring and monitoring movements due to tides, currents, and operations are vital. Seamless coordination between ship and terminal via designated communication systems is central, including comprehension of emergency signals. Cargo information—grade, quantity, contaminants, and local regulations—is crucial. Uncontaminated cargo holds are vital. Likewise, creating a pre-arrival cargo plan, approved by the terminal and shared with ship and terminal teams, is highly critical. Deviations require authorization, with copies sent to the port agency. The plan must detail loader capabilities and rates. Ballast efficacy, frozen ballast readiness, and equipment accuracy need rigorous checks. Adjustments are needed if the ship’s cargo acceptance rate differs from the terminal’s loading capability.
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      Seaport Hazardous Cargo Loading and Unloading Risk Assessment Using Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Sets and Bayesian Networks

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    contributor authorRafi Ullah Khan
    contributor authorJingbo Yin
    contributor authorFaluk Shair Mustafa
    contributor authorSiqi Wang
    date accessioned2024-04-27T22:32:04Z
    date available2024-04-27T22:32:04Z
    date issued2024/03/01
    identifier other10.1061-AJRUA6.RUENG-1120.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4296879
    description abstractManifold calamitous consequences of seaport hazardous cargo accidents have raised grave trepidation over the safe management of hazardous cargo. Fewer investigations have aimed at the multifaceted risk associated with intricate seaport hazardous cargo loading and unloading operations. To that end, this study analyzes the multifaceted risks associated with seaport hazardous cargo loading and unloading operations. Bayesian network (BN) is employed and amalgamated with interval type-2 fuzzy sets to account for intricacies and uncertainties concomitant to the causation factors. Power average operator on aggregation of domain expert opinions, and experts scores in quantifying conditional probability tables are employed to further augment the viability and diagnosis accuracy of the analysis. The results reveal policy and regulations failures, errors and violations, and communications issues as the prominent accident causation factors. To identify the critical accident causation factors, a sensitivity analysis was performed. Based on these insights, the study proposes practical applications in terms of development and abidance of rules, resource upkeeping, and critical operations to mitigate the risk of seaport hazardous cargo loading and unloading operations. The study’s outcomes propose practical measures to mitigate risks effectively. Adhering to safety regulations is paramount, especially when handling petrochemicals and ammonium nitrate. Staff must diligently follow rules to prevent negligence or authority misuse. Monitoring personnel qualifications and experienced supervisors play a vital role in promptly identifying threats. Consistent checks and maintenance of technology, infrastructure, and equipment are indispensable. Ship positioning entails assessing water depth and vessel draught. Secure mooring and monitoring movements due to tides, currents, and operations are vital. Seamless coordination between ship and terminal via designated communication systems is central, including comprehension of emergency signals. Cargo information—grade, quantity, contaminants, and local regulations—is crucial. Uncontaminated cargo holds are vital. Likewise, creating a pre-arrival cargo plan, approved by the terminal and shared with ship and terminal teams, is highly critical. Deviations require authorization, with copies sent to the port agency. The plan must detail loader capabilities and rates. Ballast efficacy, frozen ballast readiness, and equipment accuracy need rigorous checks. Adjustments are needed if the ship’s cargo acceptance rate differs from the terminal’s loading capability.
    publisherASCE
    titleSeaport Hazardous Cargo Loading and Unloading Risk Assessment Using Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Sets and Bayesian Networks
    typeJournal Article
    journal volume10
    journal issue1
    journal titleASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
    identifier doi10.1061/AJRUA6.RUENG-1120
    journal fristpage04023065-1
    journal lastpage04023065-16
    page16
    treeASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering:;2024:;Volume ( 010 ):;issue: 001
    contenttypeFulltext
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