| description abstract | The current energy scenario requires that gas turbines (GTs) operate at their maximum efficiency and highest reliability. Trip is one of the most disrupting events that reduces GT availability and increases maintenance costs. To tackle the challenge of GT trip prediction, this paper presents a methodology that has the goal of monitoring the early warnings raised during GT operation and trigger an alert to avoid trip occurrence. The methodology makes use of an auto-encoder (prediction model) and a three-stage criterion (detection procedure). The auto-encoder is first trained to reconstruct safe operation data and subsequently tested on new data collected before trip occurrence. The trip detection criterion checks whether the individually tested data points should be classified as normal or anomalous (first stage), provides a warning if the anomaly score over a given time frame exceeds a threshold (second stage), and, finally, combines consecutive warnings to trigger a trip alert in advance (third stage). The methodology is applied to a real-world case study composed of a collection of trips, of which the causes may be different, gathered from various GTs in operation during several years. Historical observations of gas path measurements taken during three days of GT operation before trip occurrence are employed for the analysis. Once optimally tuned, the methodology provides a trip alert with a reliability equal to 75% at least 10 h in advance before trip occurrence. | |
