Prompt Quantitative Risk Assessment for Rain-Induced Landslides

Abstract

An extreme rainstorm can cause thousands of landslides and kill hundreds of people. In the changing climate, fatal rainstorms become more frequent and intense. The current landslide emergency management evaluates hazard intensities but lacks key information on likely consequences. This study presents a novel prompt quantitative risk assessment method for rain-induced landslides. The proposed method automatically generates a one-page risk assessment report within minutes to support effective risk communication, resource allocation, and emergency response. The propagation of uncertainties is quantified in a scientific probabilistic framework. The proposed method is tested using 83 major rainstorms during 1995–2016 in Hong Kong. The method accurately predicts the number of affected buildings and the number of potential fatalities and identifies rainstorms that can trigger fatal landslides. The proposed method contributes to the advancement of landslide emergency management from hazard-informed to risk-informed, which will significantly enhance societal resilience and facilitate climate change adaptation.