Generic Predictive Model of Earthquake-Induced Slope Displacements Derived from Finite-Element Analysis

Abstract

A generic predictive model of earthquake-induced slope displacement subjected to shallow crustal earthquake events is developed using displacements computed from finite-element (FE) analysis. The maximum displacement on the slope surface at the end of shaking was computed by nonlinear FE simulations for 49 slope models each subjected to 1051 earthquake motions. A unified predictive model of seismic displacement is developed that characterizes the slope in terms of its yield acceleration (ky), the depth of the slip surface relative to the height of the slope (Hratio), and the natural period of the full slope height (Tslope). Across five intensity measures and 10 combinations of intensity measures, peak ground velocity (PGV) is found to be the most efficient parameter for the displacement prediction, leading to significantly smaller aleatory variability. The displacement variability is partitioned into two components: between-slope variability, which represents the variability associated with different slope models, and within-slope variability, which represents the variability due to different input ground motions. The developed generic predictive model can be applied to the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of slope movements and used for deterministic earthquake scenarios in the design/analysis process.