Show simple item record

contributor authorHuang, Hui
contributor authorJia, Rong
contributor authorLiang, Jun
contributor authorDang, Jian
contributor authorWang, Zhengmian
date accessioned2022-02-06T05:50:14Z
date available2022-02-06T05:50:14Z
date copyright6/29/2021 12:00:00 AM
date issued2021
identifier issn0199-6231
identifier othersol_143_6_061010.pdf
identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4278879
description abstractWith the increasing penetration of wind power into modern power systems, accurate forecast models play a crucial role in large-scale wind power consumption and power system stability. To improve the accuracy and reliability of ultrashort-term wind power prediction, a novel deterministic prediction model and uncertainty quantification with interval estimation were proposed in this study. In consideration of the dynamic characteristics of a generator and conditional dependence, the generator rotor speed and pitch angle were regarded as the indicators of the dynamic characteristics of the generator, and light gradient boosting machine (LGBM) with a Bayesian optimization method was explored to build the deterministic prediction model. Considering the conditional dependence between output power and forecast error, a fuzzy C-means clustering method was used to cluster forecast errors into different clusters, and the best error probability distribution was obtained by fitting the error histogram with nonparametric kernel density estimation. Prediction intervals at different confidence levels were calculated, and the error uncertainty was quantified. A case study was conducted to compare prediction accuracy and reliability by using the present and proposed methods. Results demonstrate that the LGBM deterministic prediction model combined with Bayesian optimization has better prediction accuracy and lower computational cost than the comparative models, specifically when the input features are high-dimensional big data. The nonparametric estimation method with conditional dependence is reliable for interval prediction. The proposed method has a certain reference value for wind turbines participating in frequency regulation and power control of power grid.
publisherThe American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)
titleWind Power Deterministic Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification Based on Interval Estimation
typeJournal Paper
journal volume143
journal issue6
journal titleJournal of Solar Energy Engineering
identifier doi10.1115/1.4051430
journal fristpage061010-1
journal lastpage061010-11
page11
treeJournal of Solar Energy Engineering:;2021:;volume( 143 ):;issue: 006
contenttypeFulltext


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record