Projections of Wind Gusts for New York City Under a Changing Climate

Abstract

To determine potential changes in the frequency and intensity of future storm events due to climate change in New York City (NYC), a statistical downscaling technique is proposed. First, a historical benchmark was determined using weather station data from the John F. Kennedy (JFK) and La Guardia (LGA) airports for the period 1973–2017. This historical information was used to perform the bias-correction exercise of near-future (2011–2050) global circulation model (GCM) output (ORNL RegCM4; RCP 8.5). Results show that NYC is projected to experience higher wind gusts under a warming climate for the period 2017–2050 in comparison with the historical data period, with the most extreme event projected to produce a maximum wind gust of approximately 110 mph, a significant increase over the past maximum of 80 mph. The historical 700-year return period event was estimated at 115 mph, while the overall 700-year event (historical and projected) is estimated at 124 mph. The most extreme cases of maximum daily wind gusts are projected to occur during the winter and early spring seasons. No increase in the number of projected tropical storms was observed, but the intensity of the storms is projected to be higher than during the historical period. These changes in extreme wind events could have serious implications for NYC in terms of urban planning, potential power outages, transportation disruptions, impacts on building structures, and public safety.