Updated Design Wind Map for Brazil and Impacts on the Reliability of Built Structures

Abstract

Nonstationarity of wind regimes has an impact on design maps and on the reliability of built structures. This paper addressed the updating of design charts for wind loads, the nonstationary forecasting of maximum annual wind speeds for the next 30 years, and the evaluation of the impact of changing wind regimes on the structural reliability of built structures. The study object was the Brazilian territory, the design wind chart for which has been outdated for over 40 years. An updated design chart is proposed based on an extensive compilation of wind speed data measured at Brazilian (and neighboring) airports. The interpolation of wind speeds for intermediate locations was discussed based on polynomial and kriging response surfaces. The trend analysis for maximum annual wind speeds was carried out using Holt’s method. The impact of changing wind speeds was evaluated based on Monte Carlo analysis of a multistory steel building; structural collapse was determined using finite-element models that consider geometrical and material nonlinear analysis with imperfections. Results indicate that urgent attention should be given to changing wind speeds in the design of building structures.