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    Probabilistic Flood Loss Assessment at the Community Scale: Case Study of 2016 Flooding in Lumberton, North Carolina

    Source: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering:;2020:;Volume ( 006 ):;issue: 002
    Author:
    Omar M. Nofal
    ,
    John W. van de Lindt
    DOI: 10.1061/AJRUA6.0001060
    Publisher: ASCE
    Abstract: Flood events are one of the most common natural disasters in the United States and can disrupt businesses; strain the financial resources of agencies that respond; and often leave households dislocated for days, months, or permanently. Community resilience planning requires an assessment of the damage and loss caused by a hazard followed by recovery modeling, which couples the socioeconomics with the physical-infrastructure recovery process. This paper focuses on the first part of that analysis chain, namely damage and loss modeling to riverine flooding at the community level, with a case study of Lumberton, North Carolina, using empirical damage fragilities. The process includes the major components toward flood-loss quantification. The losses in the case study are computed from the damage fragilities and compared with the deterministic flood loss analysis in HAZUS-MH, which uses stage-damage functions. For the case study presented in this paper, the fragility-based approach resulted in slightly higher loss estimates. The fragility-based approach presented as part of this study can provide a mechanism to propagate uncertainty in damage and loss estimates. This ability to propagate such uncertainty into the analysis would allow for risk-informed decision making for floods using a similar approach to what is currently done for earthquake and wind community-level loss analyses.
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      Probabilistic Flood Loss Assessment at the Community Scale: Case Study of 2016 Flooding in Lumberton, North Carolina

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    • ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering

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    contributor authorOmar M. Nofal
    contributor authorJohn W. van de Lindt
    date accessioned2022-01-30T21:18:52Z
    date available2022-01-30T21:18:52Z
    date issued6/1/2020 12:00:00 AM
    identifier otherAJRUA6.0001060.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4267986
    description abstractFlood events are one of the most common natural disasters in the United States and can disrupt businesses; strain the financial resources of agencies that respond; and often leave households dislocated for days, months, or permanently. Community resilience planning requires an assessment of the damage and loss caused by a hazard followed by recovery modeling, which couples the socioeconomics with the physical-infrastructure recovery process. This paper focuses on the first part of that analysis chain, namely damage and loss modeling to riverine flooding at the community level, with a case study of Lumberton, North Carolina, using empirical damage fragilities. The process includes the major components toward flood-loss quantification. The losses in the case study are computed from the damage fragilities and compared with the deterministic flood loss analysis in HAZUS-MH, which uses stage-damage functions. For the case study presented in this paper, the fragility-based approach resulted in slightly higher loss estimates. The fragility-based approach presented as part of this study can provide a mechanism to propagate uncertainty in damage and loss estimates. This ability to propagate such uncertainty into the analysis would allow for risk-informed decision making for floods using a similar approach to what is currently done for earthquake and wind community-level loss analyses.
    publisherASCE
    titleProbabilistic Flood Loss Assessment at the Community Scale: Case Study of 2016 Flooding in Lumberton, North Carolina
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume6
    journal issue2
    journal titleASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
    identifier doi10.1061/AJRUA6.0001060
    page15
    treeASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering:;2020:;Volume ( 006 ):;issue: 002
    contenttypeFulltext
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