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    Monsoon Mission: A Targeted Activity to Improve Monsoon Prediction across Scales

    Source: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:;2020:;volume( 100 ):;issue: 012::page 2509
    Author:
    Rao, Suryachandra A.;Goswami, B. N.;Sahai, A. K.;Rajagopal, E. N.;Mukhopadhyay, P.;Rajeevan, M.;Nayak, S.;Rathore, L. S.;Shenoi, S. S. C.;Ramesh, K. J.;Nanjundiah, R. S.;Ravichandran, M.;Mitra, A. K.;Pai, D. S.;Bhowmik, S. K. R.;Hazra, A.;Mahapatra, S.;Saha, S. K.;Chaudhari, H. S.;Joseph, S.;Sreenivas, P.;Pokhrel, S.;Pillai, P. A.;Chattopadhyay, R.;Deshpande, M.;Krishna, R. P. M.;Das, Renu S.;Prasad, V. S.;Abhilash, S.;Panickal, S.;Krishnan, R.;Kumar, S.;Ramu, D. A.;Reddy, S. S.;Arora, A.;Goswami, T.;Rai, A.;Srivastava, A.;Pradhan, M.;Tirkey, S.;Ganai, M.;Mandal, R.;Dey, A.;Sarkar, S.;Malviya, S.;Dhakate, A.;Salunke, K.;Maini, Parvinder
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0330.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: In spite of the summer monsoon’s importance in determining the life and economy of an agriculture-dependent country like India, committed efforts toward improving its prediction and simulation have been limited. Hence, a focused mission mode program Monsoon Mission (MM) was founded in 2012 to spur progress in this direction. This article explains the efforts made by the Earth System Science Organization (ESSO), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India, in implementing MM to develop a dynamical prediction framework to improve monsoon prediction. Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), and the Met Office Unified Model (UM) were chosen as the base models. The efforts in this program have resulted in 1) unparalleled skill of 0.63 for seasonal prediction of the Indian monsoon (for the period 1981–2010) in a high-resolution (∼38 km) seasonal prediction system, relative to present-generation seasonal prediction models; 2) extended-range predictions by a CFS-based grand multimodel ensemble (MME) prediction system; and 3) a gain of 2-day lead time from very high-resolution (12.5 km) Global Forecast System (GFS)-based short-range predictions up to 10 days. These prediction skills are on par with other global leading weather and climate centers, and are better in some areas. Several developmental activities like coupled data assimilation, changes in convective parameterization, cloud microphysics schemes, and parameterization of land surface processes (including snow and sea ice) led to the improvements such as reducing the strong model biases in the Indian summer monsoon simulation and elsewhere in the tropics.
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      Monsoon Mission: A Targeted Activity to Improve Monsoon Prediction across Scales

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    contributor authorRao, Suryachandra A.;Goswami, B. N.;Sahai, A. K.;Rajagopal, E. N.;Mukhopadhyay, P.;Rajeevan, M.;Nayak, S.;Rathore, L. S.;Shenoi, S. S. C.;Ramesh, K. J.;Nanjundiah, R. S.;Ravichandran, M.;Mitra, A. K.;Pai, D. S.;Bhowmik, S. K. R.;Hazra, A.;Mahapatra, S.;Saha, S. K.;Chaudhari, H. S.;Joseph, S.;Sreenivas, P.;Pokhrel, S.;Pillai, P. A.;Chattopadhyay, R.;Deshpande, M.;Krishna, R. P. M.;Das, Renu S.;Prasad, V. S.;Abhilash, S.;Panickal, S.;Krishnan, R.;Kumar, S.;Ramu, D. A.;Reddy, S. S.;Arora, A.;Goswami, T.;Rai, A.;Srivastava, A.;Pradhan, M.;Tirkey, S.;Ganai, M.;Mandal, R.;Dey, A.;Sarkar, S.;Malviya, S.;Dhakate, A.;Salunke, K.;Maini, Parvinder
    date accessioned2022-01-30T17:58:18Z
    date available2022-01-30T17:58:18Z
    date copyright1/7/2020 12:00:00 AM
    date issued2020
    identifier issn0003-0007
    identifier otherbams-d-17-0330_1.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4264279
    description abstractIn spite of the summer monsoon’s importance in determining the life and economy of an agriculture-dependent country like India, committed efforts toward improving its prediction and simulation have been limited. Hence, a focused mission mode program Monsoon Mission (MM) was founded in 2012 to spur progress in this direction. This article explains the efforts made by the Earth System Science Organization (ESSO), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India, in implementing MM to develop a dynamical prediction framework to improve monsoon prediction. Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), and the Met Office Unified Model (UM) were chosen as the base models. The efforts in this program have resulted in 1) unparalleled skill of 0.63 for seasonal prediction of the Indian monsoon (for the period 1981–2010) in a high-resolution (∼38 km) seasonal prediction system, relative to present-generation seasonal prediction models; 2) extended-range predictions by a CFS-based grand multimodel ensemble (MME) prediction system; and 3) a gain of 2-day lead time from very high-resolution (12.5 km) Global Forecast System (GFS)-based short-range predictions up to 10 days. These prediction skills are on par with other global leading weather and climate centers, and are better in some areas. Several developmental activities like coupled data assimilation, changes in convective parameterization, cloud microphysics schemes, and parameterization of land surface processes (including snow and sea ice) led to the improvements such as reducing the strong model biases in the Indian summer monsoon simulation and elsewhere in the tropics.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleMonsoon Mission: A Targeted Activity to Improve Monsoon Prediction across Scales
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume100
    journal issue12
    journal titleBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
    identifier doi10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0330.1
    journal fristpage2509
    journal lastpage2532
    treeBulletin of the American Meteorological Society:;2020:;volume( 100 ):;issue: 012
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
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