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    Daily Autocorrelation and Mean Temperature/Moisture Rise as Determining Factors for Future Heat-Wave Patterns in the United States

    Source: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology:;2020:;volume( 59 ):;issue: 010::page 1735
    Author:
    Barnston, Anthony G.;Lyon, Bradfield;Coffel, Ethan D.;Horton, Radley M.
    DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0291.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: The frequency of heat waves (defined as daily temperature exceeding the local 90th percentile for at least three consecutive days) during summer in the United States is examined for daily maximum and minimum temperature and maximum apparent temperature, in recent observations and in 10 CMIP5 models for recent past and future. The annual average percentage of days participating in a heat wave varied between approximately 2% and 10% in observations and in the model’s historical simulations during 1979–2005. Applying today’s temperature thresholds to future projections, heat-wave frequencies rise to more than 20% by 2035–40. However, given the models’ slight overestimation of frequencies and positive trend rates during 1979–2005, these projected heat-wave frequencies should be regarded cautiously. The models’ overestimations may be associated with their higher daily autocorrelation than is found in observations. Heat-wave frequencies defined using apparent temperature, reflecting both temperature and atmospheric moisture, are projected to increase at a slightly (and statistically significantly) faster rate than for temperature alone. Analyses show little or no changes in the day-to-day variability or persistence (autocorrelation) of extreme temperature between recent past and future, indicating that the future heat-wave frequency will be due predominantly to increases in standardized (using historical period statistics) mean temperature and moisture content, adjusted by the local climatological daily autocorrelation. Using nonparametric methods, the average level and spatial pattern of future heat-wave frequency is shown to be approximately predictable on the basis of only projected mean temperature increases and local autocorrelation. These model-projected changes, even if only approximate, would impact infrastructure, ecology, and human well-being.
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      Daily Autocorrelation and Mean Temperature/Moisture Rise as Determining Factors for Future Heat-Wave Patterns in the United States

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    contributor authorBarnston, Anthony G.;Lyon, Bradfield;Coffel, Ethan D.;Horton, Radley M.
    date accessioned2022-01-30T17:48:54Z
    date available2022-01-30T17:48:54Z
    date copyright10/22/2020 12:00:00 AM
    date issued2020
    identifier issn1558-8424
    identifier otherjamcd190291.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4263983
    description abstractThe frequency of heat waves (defined as daily temperature exceeding the local 90th percentile for at least three consecutive days) during summer in the United States is examined for daily maximum and minimum temperature and maximum apparent temperature, in recent observations and in 10 CMIP5 models for recent past and future. The annual average percentage of days participating in a heat wave varied between approximately 2% and 10% in observations and in the model’s historical simulations during 1979–2005. Applying today’s temperature thresholds to future projections, heat-wave frequencies rise to more than 20% by 2035–40. However, given the models’ slight overestimation of frequencies and positive trend rates during 1979–2005, these projected heat-wave frequencies should be regarded cautiously. The models’ overestimations may be associated with their higher daily autocorrelation than is found in observations. Heat-wave frequencies defined using apparent temperature, reflecting both temperature and atmospheric moisture, are projected to increase at a slightly (and statistically significantly) faster rate than for temperature alone. Analyses show little or no changes in the day-to-day variability or persistence (autocorrelation) of extreme temperature between recent past and future, indicating that the future heat-wave frequency will be due predominantly to increases in standardized (using historical period statistics) mean temperature and moisture content, adjusted by the local climatological daily autocorrelation. Using nonparametric methods, the average level and spatial pattern of future heat-wave frequency is shown to be approximately predictable on the basis of only projected mean temperature increases and local autocorrelation. These model-projected changes, even if only approximate, would impact infrastructure, ecology, and human well-being.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleDaily Autocorrelation and Mean Temperature/Moisture Rise as Determining Factors for Future Heat-Wave Patterns in the United States
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume59
    journal issue10
    journal titleJournal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
    identifier doi10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0291.1
    journal fristpage1735
    journal lastpage1754
    treeJournal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology:;2020:;volume( 59 ):;issue: 010
    contenttypeFulltext
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