The Impact of Writing Area Forecast Discussions on Student Forecaster PerformanceSource: Weather and Forecasting:;2006:;volume( 021 ):;issue: 001::page 104Author:Market, Patrick S.
DOI: 10.1175/WAF905.1Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A brief study is provided on the forecast performance of students who write a mock area forecast discussion (AFD) on a weekly basis. Student performance was tracked for one semester (11 weeks) during the University of Missouri?Columbia's local weather forecast game. The hypothesis posed is that student performance is no better on days when they compose an AFD. A nonparametric Mann?Whitney test cannot reject that hypothesis. However, the same test employed on precipitation forecasts (for days when precipitation actually fell) shows that there is a statistically significant difference (p = 0.02) between the scores of those students writing an AFD and those who do not. Similar results are found with a chi-square test. Thus, AFD writers improve their precipitation score on days when significant weather occurred. Forecaster confidence is also enhanced by AFD composition.
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| contributor author | Market, Patrick S. | |
| date accessioned | 2017-06-09T17:35:05Z | |
| date available | 2017-06-09T17:35:05Z | |
| date copyright | 2006/02/01 | |
| date issued | 2006 | |
| identifier issn | 0882-8156 | |
| identifier other | ams-87593.pdf | |
| identifier uri | http://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4231279 | |
| description abstract | A brief study is provided on the forecast performance of students who write a mock area forecast discussion (AFD) on a weekly basis. Student performance was tracked for one semester (11 weeks) during the University of Missouri?Columbia's local weather forecast game. The hypothesis posed is that student performance is no better on days when they compose an AFD. A nonparametric Mann?Whitney test cannot reject that hypothesis. However, the same test employed on precipitation forecasts (for days when precipitation actually fell) shows that there is a statistically significant difference (p = 0.02) between the scores of those students writing an AFD and those who do not. Similar results are found with a chi-square test. Thus, AFD writers improve their precipitation score on days when significant weather occurred. Forecaster confidence is also enhanced by AFD composition. | |
| publisher | American Meteorological Society | |
| title | The Impact of Writing Area Forecast Discussions on Student Forecaster Performance | |
| type | Journal Paper | |
| journal volume | 21 | |
| journal issue | 1 | |
| journal title | Weather and Forecasting | |
| identifier doi | 10.1175/WAF905.1 | |
| journal fristpage | 104 | |
| journal lastpage | 108 | |
| tree | Weather and Forecasting:;2006:;volume( 021 ):;issue: 001 | |
| contenttype | Fulltext |