Improvement of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Size Estimation Algorithms

Abstract

Previous work, in which Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) data from the Atlantic Ocean and east Pacific Ocean basins during 1999?2001 were used to provide objective estimates of 1-min maximum sustained surface winds, minimum sea level pressure, and the radii of 34-, 50-, and 64-kt (1 kt ≡ 0.5144 m s?1) winds in the northeast, southeast, southwest, and northwest quadrants of tropical cyclones, is updated to reflect larger datasets, improved statistical analysis techniques, and improved estimation through dependent variable transforms. A multiple regression approach, which utilizes best-subset predictor selection and cross validation, is employed to develop the estimation models, where the dependent data (i.e., maximum sustained winds, minimum pressure, wind radii) are from the extended best track and the independent data consist of AMSU-derived parameters that give information about retrieved pressure, winds, temperature, moisture, and satellite resolution. The developmental regression models result in mean absolute errors (MAE) of 10.8 kt and 7.8 hPa for estimating maximum winds and minimum pressure, respectively. The MAE for the 34-, 50-, and 64-kt azimuthally averaged wind radii are 16.9, 13.3, and 6.8 n mi (1 n mi ≡ 1852 m), respectively.