Sea Ice Concentration Analyses for the Baltic Sea and Their Impact on Numerical Weather Prediction

Abstract

Sea ice concentration plays a fundamental role in the exchange of water and energy between the ocean and the atmosphere. Global real-time datasets of sea ice concentration are based on satellite observations, which do not necessarily resolve small-scale patterns or coastal features. In this study, the global National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 0.5° sea ice concentration dataset is compared with a regional high-resolution analysis for the Baltic Sea produced 2 times per week by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). In general, the NCEP dataset exhibits less spatial and temporal variability during the winter of 2003/04. Because of the coarse resolution of the NCEP dataset, ice extent is generally larger than in the SMHI analysis. Mean sea ice concentrations derived from both datasets are in reasonable agreement during the ice-growing and ice-melting periods in January and April, respectively. For February and March, during which the sea ice extent is largest, mean sea ice concentrations are lower in the NCEP dataset relative to the SMHI product. Ten-day weather forecasts based on the NCEP sea ice concentrations and the SMHI dataset have been performed, and they were compared on the local, regional, and continental scales. Turbulent surface fluxes have been analyzed based on 24-h forecasts. The differences in sea ice extent during the ice-growing period in January cause mean differences of up to 30 W m?2 for sensible heat flux and 20 W m?2 for latent heat flux in parts of the Gulf of Bothnia and the Gulf of Finland. The comparison between spatially aggregated fluxes yields differences of up to 36 and 20 W m?2 for sensible and latent heat flux, respectively. The differences in turbulent fluxes result in different planetary boundary height and structure. Even the forecast cloud cover changes by up to 40% locally.