Dynamical, Statistical–Dynamical, and Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts of Australian Spring Season Rainfall

Abstract

The prediction skill of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology dynamical seasonal forecast model Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) is assessed for probabilistic forecasts of spring season rainfall in Australia and the feasibility of increasing forecast skill through statistical postprocessing is examined. Two statistical postprocessing techniques are explored: calibrating POAMA prediction of rainfall anomaly against observations and using dynamically predicted mean sea level pressure to infer regional rainfall anomaly over Australia (referred to as ?bridging?). A ?homogeneous? multimodel ensemble prediction method (HMME) is also introduced that consists of the combination of POAMA?s direct prediction of rainfall anomaly together with the two statistically postprocessed predictions. Using hindcasts for the period 1981?2006, the direct forecasts from POAMA exhibit skill relative to a climatological forecast over broad areas of eastern and southern Australia, where El Niño and the Indian Ocean dipole (whose behavior POAMA can skillfully predict at short lead times) are known to exert a strong influence in austral spring. The calibrated and bridged forecasts, while potentially offering improvement over the direct forecasts because of POAMA?s ability to predict the main drivers of springtime rainfall (e.g., El Niño and the Southern Oscillation), show only limited areas of improvement, mainly because strict cross-validation limits the ability to capitalize on relatively modest predictive signals with short record lengths. However, when POAMA and the two statistical?dynamical rainfall forecasts are combined in the HMME, higher deterministic and probabilistic skill is achieved over any of the single models, which suggests the HMME is another useful method to calibrate dynamical model forecasts.