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    Time-Dependent Changes in Extreme-Precipitation Return-Period Amounts in the Continental United States

    Source: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology:;2009:;volume( 048 ):;issue: 010::page 2086
    Author:
    DeGaetano, Arthur T.
    DOI: 10.1175/2009JAMC2179.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: Partial-duration maximum precipitation series from Historical Climatology Network stations are used as a basis for assessing trends in extreme-precipitation recurrence-interval amounts. Two types of time series are analyzed: running series in which the generalized extreme-value (GEV) distribution is fit to separate overlapping 30-yr data series and lengthening series in which more recent years are iteratively added to a base series from the early part of the record. Resampling procedures are used to assess both trend and field significance. Across the United States, nearly two-thirds of the trends in the 2-, 5-, and 10-yr return-period rainfall amounts, as well as the GEV distribution location parameter, are positive. Significant positive trends in these values tend to cluster in the Northeast, western Great Lakes, and Pacific Northwest. Slopes are more pronounced in the 1960?2007 period when compared with the 1950?2007 interval. In the Northeast and western Great Lakes, the 2-yr return-period precipitation amount increases at a rate of approximately 2% per decade, whereas the change in the 100-yr storm amount is between 4% and 9% per decade. These changes result primarily from an increase in the location parameter of the fitted GEV distribution. Collectively, these increases result in a median 20% decrease in the expected recurrence interval, regardless of interval length. Thus, at stations across a large part of the eastern United States and Pacific Northwest, the 50-yr storm based on 1950?79 data can be expected to occur on average once every 40 yr, when data from the 1950?2007 period are considered.
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      Time-Dependent Changes in Extreme-Precipitation Return-Period Amounts in the Continental United States

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    contributor authorDeGaetano, Arthur T.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T16:27:52Z
    date available2017-06-09T16:27:52Z
    date copyright2009/10/01
    date issued2009
    identifier issn1558-8424
    identifier otherams-68328.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4209874
    description abstractPartial-duration maximum precipitation series from Historical Climatology Network stations are used as a basis for assessing trends in extreme-precipitation recurrence-interval amounts. Two types of time series are analyzed: running series in which the generalized extreme-value (GEV) distribution is fit to separate overlapping 30-yr data series and lengthening series in which more recent years are iteratively added to a base series from the early part of the record. Resampling procedures are used to assess both trend and field significance. Across the United States, nearly two-thirds of the trends in the 2-, 5-, and 10-yr return-period rainfall amounts, as well as the GEV distribution location parameter, are positive. Significant positive trends in these values tend to cluster in the Northeast, western Great Lakes, and Pacific Northwest. Slopes are more pronounced in the 1960?2007 period when compared with the 1950?2007 interval. In the Northeast and western Great Lakes, the 2-yr return-period precipitation amount increases at a rate of approximately 2% per decade, whereas the change in the 100-yr storm amount is between 4% and 9% per decade. These changes result primarily from an increase in the location parameter of the fitted GEV distribution. Collectively, these increases result in a median 20% decrease in the expected recurrence interval, regardless of interval length. Thus, at stations across a large part of the eastern United States and Pacific Northwest, the 50-yr storm based on 1950?79 data can be expected to occur on average once every 40 yr, when data from the 1950?2007 period are considered.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleTime-Dependent Changes in Extreme-Precipitation Return-Period Amounts in the Continental United States
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume48
    journal issue10
    journal titleJournal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
    identifier doi10.1175/2009JAMC2179.1
    journal fristpage2086
    journal lastpage2099
    treeJournal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology:;2009:;volume( 048 ):;issue: 010
    contenttypeFulltext
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